The Yankees are in the nation’s capital this weekend, leading up to the All-Star break. They’ll start their series against the Nationals on Friday night at 6:45 p.m. ET. Each of these two teams comes into the series with a winning record and will be looking to make a push to the playoffs after the break. Let’s dive into Friday’s matchup and come up with a Yankees-Nationals prediction for this contest.
The Yankees are four games back of the Rays in the American League East, but with 51 wins, they still have the second-best record in the American League. The Nationals are two games over .500 at 48-46, but that is only good enough for fourth in the stacked NL East. In the early NL playoff race, they’re just one game out of the third and final Wild Card spot. The Nats have exceeded expectations this season and will look to conitnue their suprising success by taking it to the Yankees this weekend.
The Nats will have to take on lefty Ryan Weathers in the series opener, while they’ll give the ball to 25-year-old lefty Carson Palmquist as an opener ahead of Zack Littell, who is expected to serve as the bulk reliever.
The Yankees are heavy road favorites at -162 on the moneyline, with the over/under elevated to 10 runs. Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Nationals prediction, preview
The Yankees have been scuffling lately, going just 3-11 over their last 14 games, but they did just split a four-game set in Tampa with the Rays. The offense got rolling with a 12-run outburst on Thursday behind a pair of dingers from Ben Rice, which is a great sign for the Pinstripes, who have been struggling to get going at the plate in the continued absence of Aaron Judge (rib).
They’ll be in a good spot against Palmquist and Littell, although Littell has been much more effective lately. Over his last 10 games, Littell has a 3.62 ERA and has gone 6-2 in seven starts and three games after an opener. He made a traditional start against the Pirates in his most recent outing and allowed just one run on four hits in six innings. Even though he has been trending in the right direction over the last few months, he has been homer-prone again this season, giving up 22 blasts in 18 games. In his 51 1/3 home innings, he has given up 13 homers, and lefties have 16 of the 22 homers against him, which could be an issue against the Yankees’ power lefties.
The Yankees will counter Palmquist and Littell with Ryan Weathers, who will be making his fifth career start against Washington. He is 2-1 but has a 6.20 ERA against Washington, and the only time he pitched in Washington, he allowed five runs on seven hits in six innings. In his first year for the Yankees, he is 3-7 with a 4.29 ERA and 4.06 FIP. Unlike Littell, he has been trending the wrong way, giving up 28 runs on 40 hits in 35 innings. In those seven starts, Weathers has given up eight homers. He has also given up six homers in his six road games with a 4.64 road ERA.
The weather at Nationals Park is forecast to be well over 80 degrees with the wind blowing out to right field. There could be some lingering storms in the area, but once it clears it should be good hitting weather.
Over the last 30 days, the Nationals have hit 45 homers, the second-most in the majors, and the Yankees have hit 38 homers during that stretch, still bringing plenty of thunder even though their overall run production is down. With homer-prone arms on the mound and favorable conditions, it should be a good night for some fireworks.
Yankees vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Game Totals: Over 2.5 home runs (-140)
With both pitchers giving up hard contact and both teams producing plenty of power over the last few weeks, we should get some blasts. Both lineups have plenty of pop, so it makes more sense to bet the overall homer total than attack one side or the other.
Strong Lean: James Wood 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+135)
Wood has an impressive total of 242 HRR this season in his 94 games, averaging 2.6 HRR per contest. He has 3+ HRR in eight of his last 10 games and has been hot enough to back even in a lefty-lefty matchup this Friday.
