With the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET, the Cleveland Guardians will face off with the Minnesota Twins for the second matchup of this series.
The Minnesota Twins picked up a 3-1 win in the series opener on Tuesday. These two American League Central opponents are just two games apart in the standings, and this is an important matchup as the standings begin to take full shape with more than half the season complete. Slade Cecconi and Connor Prielipp are scheduled to get the starts for their respective teams tonight.
Looking at the odds, the Twins hold +163 odds on the -1.5 run line and are narrow -120 favorites to win outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Guardians hold -101 odds of getting the victory with the run total set at 8.5.
Guardians vs. Twins prediction, preview
The Cleveland Guardians are off to a 47-45 start to the season, sitting just one game behind the Chicago White Sox for the top seed in the American League Central. They enter this matchup looking to snap a three-game losing streak, but they won three consecutive games before this. On the season overall, the Guardians have gone 47-45 to the run line, and the run total is 44-48 to the over/under.
Slade Cecconi will make his 19th start of the season for the Guardians. The 27-year-old enters with a 4-6 record, a 4.44 ERA, and a 1.395 WHIP. He has tallied 73 strikeouts and conceded 103 hits and 13 home runs across his 95.1 innings pitched. Cecconi has faced this Twins lineup in just 17 at-bats in his career, limiting the collective unit to just three hits and slash lines of .176/.176/.235 with a .412 OPS.
Looking at the production at the plate, the Guardians rank 29th in the MLB in runs scored. They rank 28th in hits, 27th in home runs, and 16th in strikeouts. Brayan Rocchio leads the team in hits, along with six home runs and 37 RBI. Chase DeLauter adds 77 hits along with a team-high 41 RBI and eight home runs. Angel Martinez and Jose Ramirez have tallied 11 and 10 home runs, but each is sidelined on the injury report tonight. Kyle Manzardo is the lone other player with double-figure home runs, with 10 on the season. Steven Kwan, Daniel Schneemann, Travis Bazzana, and Rhys Hoskins also play key roles.
The Minnesota Twins enter with a 45-47 record on the season. They sit three games back of the top seed in the AL Central and two games back of the Guardians for second place. They enter this matchup looking to extend a three-game winning streak and have won six of their last eight matchups. Minnesota has gone 50-42 to the run line this season, and the run total is 53-33-6 to the over/under.
Rookie pitcher Connor Prielipp will be making his 13th start of the season for the Twins. The 25-year-old enters with a 2-5 record, a 4.98 ERA, and a 1.378 WHIP. Prielipp has tallied 65 strikeouts while allowing 62 hits and six home runs across his 61.2 innings pitched. He made a start against this Guardians team in what was the fourth start of his career back on May 8th. Prielipp threw five innings, allowing four hits, one home run, and striking out six. He allowed four runs, but only one of which was considered earned. Travis Bazzana was responsible for the home run in this matchup.
Minnesota has tallied the eighth-most hits in the MLB to this point, and ranks seventh in runs, seventh in home runs, and 17th in strikeouts. Byron Buxton headlines the production with 83 hits and 25 home runs, but is sidelined on the injury report. Brooks Lee and Josh Bell each provide 81 hits of their own, with Bell adding a team-high 60 RBI. Kody Clemens has 16 home runs of his own, while Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach, and Austin Martin also play key roles.
Guardians vs. Twins pick, best bet
My initial lean was toward the over, as both of these pitchers can be prone to giving up runs. But I am backing the Cleveland Guardians to pick up the victory on the moneyline and even the series at one game apiece.
While it is far too early to begin watching the standings, this is a series that will have a factor as the divisional race heats up. More notable, Slade Cecconi has settled in on the season and pitched at a high level of late. He has limited opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his past 11 starts, posting a 3.17 ERA across this stretch. This is well below his season ERA total of 4.44. The sample size is small, but Cecconi has had success in this matchup by limiting the Twins to slash lines of .176/.176/.235 with a .412 OPS across these chances.
In contrast, Connor Prielipp has not done a good enough job putting the Twins in positions to win. There have been flashes by the rookie, but he has conceded three or more earned runs in five of his past seven starts and has not escaped without allowing a run in any start this year. He is posting a 6.38 ERA across the past seven games, compared to his 4.98 ERA on the season.
Even with Cleveland’s offensive shortcomings in mind, back the Guardians to take advantage of this favorable pitching matchup and put the required number of runs on the board to produce the victory. They have won each of their last five games as underdogs against AL Central opponents and done a nice job climbing the standings of late. Ride the hot hand of the recent form in the pitching matchup, and expect the inexperience of Prielipp to provide a pathway to Cleveland to produce the win.
