The Pittsburgh Pirates put on a show last night with a 12-4 win against the Atlanta Braves. On Wednesday, they run it back again at PNC Park for game two of this three-game set. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Braves vs. Pirates matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Atlanta Braves
With last night’s loss, the Braves fell to 7-16 following the latest injury that sent Ronald Acuna Jr. back to the IL on June 10. Now, they’re 52-38 on the campaign with little sign of things turning around. As mentioned in yesterday’s write-up, the club is fifth-to-last in runs scored since he hit the bench back in June, also ranking fourth-to-last in home runs while dipping to third worst with a .647 OPS. However, they did muster 11 hits last night for a somewhat better effort, and they post 4.90 runs per game with a .727 OPS on the full season that ranks 14th. Overall this year, Atlanta’s slash line reads .249/.314/.413 with a .164 ISO that falls 10th, plus 116 home runs. They just haven’t looked like that version of themselves without Acuna. The Braves also maintain a low 21.1% K%, but a 7.9% BB% is one of the lowest in baseball. Tonight, they do get an advantageous matchup against a right-hander after slashing .254/.319/.419 against for an OPS of .738 in the split.
RHP Grant Holmes is 5-4 in his 17 appearances (16 starts) and heads to the mound this evening. He’s got a 3.83 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and 71 strikeouts across 82.1 IP. The relievers backing him are quite good, ranking second in ERA at 3.16 with a 1.15 WHIP and a 15.5% K-BB%.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates grabbed a much-needed win last night and have now extended their streak to consecutive victories. Their division is arguably the toughest in the MLB, so a 47-45 record is good for just fourth in the NL Central. However, a +41 run differential is excellent and they’re up to 5.29 runs per gam 5.22. Pittsburgh slots in at second in OPS around the sport with a .766 mark and slashes .263/.342/.424, impressive production all around. The lineup also boasts a .161 ISO that sits 13th and 117 homers, eighth most of any club. This kind of output makes up for a 23.8% K% that slots in as the fifth highest in the MLB, while a 9.6% BB% is pretty good as well. Plus, the Pirates slash .270/.354/.439 for an astounding .793 OPS against right-handers.
RHP Jared Jones draws the start after going 1-1 in seven games. He carries a 5.28 ERA and 1.38 WHIP into this matchup with 31 strikeouts across 29.0 IP. The bullpen is also 22nd in ERA at 4.39 with an elevated 1.39 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB%.
Braves vs. Pirates pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -118 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Braves are underdogs with -102 odds to win outright on the road. The total sits at nine combined runs.
Best Bet: PIT Pirates race to three runs (-105)
We didn’t get the under on our H + BB + ER line for Paul Skenes yesterday, but we went 1-for-2 since he did get tagged with a win. Today, we’re trying to bat .667 with Pittsburgh in the race to three runs. This batting order is just miles better than the Atlanta side at the moment — although maybe the Braves began to break out of the slump at the plate to an extent with their 11 hits last night. Only the Dodgers have a better OPS against right-handed pitching than the one the Pirates enter with tonight, and their .844 OPS over the last 30 days is also third best in baseball. Where do the Braves land on that list? They’re all the way at 27th thanks to an output of .657. There’s a big difference between the two, so I think Pittsburgh is the first to tally three runs tonight.
