The Houston Astros remain within striking distance of a possible Wild Card berth to the MLB Postseason as they creep toward the .500 mark. They’re set to take on the Washington Nationals and their standout offense tonight in the nation’s capital. These sides have split the first two games of this series, with first pitch for the conclusion set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for this Astros vs. Nationals matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Houston Astros
The Astros have spent the last few weeks slowly working their way back towards the .500 mark. Since June 1, they’re 19-14 for the seventh-best winning percentage in baseball and have gotten themselves to 46-48 on the campaign. Sure, a -42 run differential is ugly, but they’ve clearly done enough to win some games. Houston averages 4.57 runs a night and ranks 15th in OPS this year with a .727 mark, slashing .241/.316/.411 to get there. The bats have plenty of pop with the fifth-best ISO at .170 and 126 homers, third most of any team. Additionally, the plate process is respectable with an 8.8% BB% and a 21.6% K%. This is a fully functioning offense, even with a low BABIP of .278. The Stros face a lefty tonight, meaning they get the lesser of their splits with a .236/.308/.404 slash line and .712 OPS in such matchups.
RHP Spencer Arrighetti gets the start after going 7-4 in his 14 games thus far. He has a 3.81 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 79 strikeouts across 78.0 IP. Notably, he finally got back on track in his last start with 6.0 innings of two-hit ball and just one earned run allowed; a welcome sight after a rough June. Houston’s bullpen continues to climb, now sitting 18th in ERA at 4.24 with a 11.33 WHIP and 11.9% K-BB%. Over the last 30 days though, those relievers are second in ERA at 2.49 with a 1.10 WHIP and 17.9% K-BB%.
Washington Nationals
Meanwhile, the Nats remain above the .500 mark, but only barely at 47-46. They’ve gone 6-4 over their last 10 games but are notably just 19-28 at their own ballpark, and the run differential on the campaign slots in at +7. This is a fearsome offensive attack that paces the MLB with 5.38 runs per game on a .758 OPS that ranks third, slashing .250/.324/.434 to do it. A .290 BABIP is solid, but it’s the power that really stands out with the second-best ISO at .183 and 130 homers, also second most of any pro club. That’s been a huge part of the equation, but a low 21.6% K% is also impressive while an 8.8% BB% is solid enough. It’s also worth noting that Washington ranks first in composite speed score. Against right-handers, the Nationals have a .749 OPS with a .244/.315/.433 slash line.
LHP Foster Griffin starts with a 9-2 record in 18 appearances. The 30-year-old has a 2.87 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 103.1 IP, finally earning a spot in the MLB rotation after years in the MiLB. The Nats’ bullpen falls 27th in ERA at 5.06 with a 1.46 WHIP and an 8.5% K-BB%. However, there’s been no recent surge from these arms like what the Astros have shown.
Astros vs. Nationals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nationals as -136 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight. The Astros are underdogs with +113 odds to win outright on the road. The total sits at 10 combined runs as well.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 extra base hits (-120)
Anything can happen tonight after a 12-1 Nats win and a 6-3 Astros victory in the first two games of this series. What we’ve seen so far is a ton of scoring, which isn’t surprising whatsoever given the pitchers who started the first couple of outings and the quality of both offenses. The total is high at an even 10 in this one, but that doesn’t feel safe by any means on either side even at an elevated line. Nor do I feel great taking either team outright, frankly. That leads us to over 6.5 combined extra base hits. Why’s that? Well, look at the ISO of both clubs. These teams both sit in the MLB’s top-five lineups in terms of ISO, which measures isolated power from those extra base hits. Given the success both the Nationals and Astros have shown driving the baseball, I like this over here.
