The Pirates and Nationals play the second game of their three-game series on Saturday, July 4.
Pittsburgh is a -156 moneyline favorite, while Washington is +129 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Pirates vs. Nationals game.
Pirates vs. Nationals prediction, preview
MLB’s July 4 schedule kicks off early on the east coast, with the Pirates and Nationals starting at 11:05 a.m. ET. This is the second game of their three-game series. Braxton Ashcraft and Zack Littell are the two starting pitchers for the game, giving Pittsburgh a significant advantage on the road.
Ashcraft has a 3.33 ERA, proving to be a consistent option behind Paul Skenes in the Pirates’ rotation. The 26-year-old struggled in his last start, allowing five earned runs and five hits (three home runs) across 6.0 innings against the Phillies. Pitching six frames is the highlight here, and it’s a regular occurrence in 2026. He’s pitched fewer than six innings in five of his 17 starts this year; that’s impressive for any pitcher, let alone a second-year pro. And while three home runs count the same toward his ERA, it’s encouraging that he only allowed five total hits.
The Nationals are far from comfortable with Littell starting. The 30-year-old is struggling to a 5.29 ERA this season, making 12 starts in 17 appearances and 80 innings. For what it’s worth, he’s been in a worse position this season, holding a 7.00+ ERA from mid April to early May. Still, he’s allowed the second most home runs (22) in the majors this season and will be facing a strong Pittsburgh offense.
The Pirates rank first in hits, third in runs scored and batting average, and ninth in home runs. These numbers should only grow with Littell on the mound Saturday. Get ready for some fireworks.
Pirates vs. Nationals Pick, Best Bet
The Pirates are heavy favorites on the road, so there’s not much value in taking their moneyline as a single bet. Parlaying it with another moneyline would increase the odds, but that’s not the goal for this article.
If we’re looking specifically for a single bet from this game, the over is the play. Littell is bound to allow a handful of runs, and Ashcraft isn’t immune to a few runs as well. That said, most of the work will be done by the Pirates’ offense.
