The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The Big 12 is home to College GameDay on Saturday between Houston and Utah, but there are other matchups in the conference that promise intrigue and excitement.
One such game comes in Tempe, where we’ll see the Arizona State Sun Devils host the Kansas State Wildcats. Arizona State has struggled in Big 12 play this season, while Kansas State is coming off a win over Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown a week ago. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Kansas State and Arizona State.
Kansas State is a 2.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 55.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 8 college football action at DraftKings Network.
For easy access to quick college football picks, join the CFB Committee Betting Group.
Kansas State vs. Arizona State Prediction
It’s been an up-and-down first half of the season for Kansas State, and the roller coaster continued a week ago with a win over Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown. It was another instance of the Wildcats owning this rivalry, but it’s a bit telling that the final score should have been more lopsided considering Kansas State’s dominance in the box score.
The Wildcats tallied 568 yards and averaged 7.6 yards per play in that game, but still failed to pull away thanks to a lack of execution in the red zone. Kansas State has struggled to finish drives in Big 12 play, and now the Wildcats are expected to be without quarterback Avery Johnson — who suffered an apparent shoulder injury in last week’s game. The drop-off from Johnson to backup quarterback Jacob Knuth is unknown, but it’s likely close to a full touchdown given Knuth’s lack of experience at the FBS level.
As for the hosts, Arizona State lost a number of notable contributors from last season’s team, and their absence has been felt through the first half of the campaign. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the spread in four of their six games this season, while dropping their last two Big 12 games by an average of 32 points.
Kenny Dillingham has responded to the struggles of his team by making a change and going with Mikey Keene as the new starting quarterback. Keene is a seasoned veteran who has played a ton at this level, and he was 25-of-34 for 256 yards and two touchdowns in relief against Texas Tech last week. With Keene under center, I’d expect Arizona State to lean into the ground game a bit more, especially against a Kansas State defense that is ranked ninth in passing success rate allowed.
Kansas State vs. Arizona State Best Bet
Ultimately, it’s difficult to trust the Kansas State offense with Johnson’s status seriously in question ahead of Saturday’s clash. On the other side, Arizona State’s offense is outside the top 100 in EPA per play and EPA per dropback. This should be a game without many explosive plays and both teams’ path to victory will likely be through controlling the game at the line of scrimmage. With that in mind, I’ll take the Under while it’s still sitting above the key number of 55 in this Big 12 matchup.