Two rising prospects in the Lightweight division, Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan, are facing off at this week’s UFC Fight Night. Ziam is 18-4 with 11 finishes and is on a six-fight winning streak. Meanwhile, Nolan, 26, is 10-1 and has won four straight contests.
Check out my best bet for Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan at this week’s UFC Fight Night.
Fares Ziam to Win by Decision (+180)
Ziam started his UFC career 2-2 but since has won six straight fights, with two of his last three coming by knockout. In Ziam’s previous fight, he beat Nazim Sadykhov by second-round knockout, which ended Sadykhov’s previous 12-fight unbeaten streak. The Australian product, Nolan, is coming off his first career submission against Charlie Campbell in September 2025.
On paper, Nolan is taller by two inches (6’3″ vs. 6’1″), while Ziam has a two-inch edge in standing reach (75″ vs. 73″). Nolan is the better striker statistically, averaging three more significant strikes per minute than Ziam. Ziam lands nearly one more takedown per 15 minutes on the ground.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Ziam is a -298 favorite while Nolan is the underdog in this contest at +240. This fight is -145 to not go the distance and +110 to last the full scheduled 15 minutes. Although Ziam has 11 career finishes, six of his last eight wins have come by decision. I favor Ziam in this contest due to having more experience while being better defensively on the feet and on the ground.
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