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UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Muhammad vs. Bonfim

UFC Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

After a successful event in Macau, the UFC returns to its home base of the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Former UFC Welterweight Champion Belal Muhammad is taking on rising contender Gabriel Bonfim in the Main Event of this week’s UFC Fight Night. The Main Card for this week’s UFC Fight Night begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $350K Throwdown [$100K to 1st]

Check out my favorite fighters to add to your daily fantasy lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event below.


Studs

Iwo Baraniewski ($9,000)

Baraniewski has a rare combination of athleticism, power, and aggressiveness that isn’t often seen in this sport from someone so early in their career. Baraniewski’s record is currently 8-0 with eight finishes, and all of them have come in the first round. He is facing Junior Tafa, who is 7-5 overall and has a 3-5 record in the UFC. Tafa is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Kevin Christian.

Even though his sample size is small, Baraniewski averages 15.77 significant strikes per minute at a 70 percent rate, which is absurd. Through two UFC fights, Baraniewski is averaging 124.7 fantasy points per contest, as he has scored 120.3 and 129.1.

Tafa is the taller fighter (6’3″ vs. 6’0″) in this contest and has the advantage in standing reach (75″ vs. 73″). Even though Baraniewski is smaller, he should be able to neutralize that disadvantage with his quickness and speed on the feet. It is highly unlikely that Tafa will be able to stand and strike with Baraniewski, given his unique movements and style.

Brendan Allen ($8,800)

After losing two straight fights to Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov, Brendan Allen got back on track in the second half of 2025 with two victories over Marvin Vettori and Reiner de Ridder. Now Allen will take on Edmen Shahbazyan, who is riding a three-fight winning streak.

Both fighters are evenly matched up as they have the same height (6’2″) and standing reach (75″). On the feet, Shahbazyan lands more significant strikes per minute (3.80 vs. 3.59) while Allen is more accurate (53% vs. 48%). Also on the ground, Shahbazyan averages 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Allen’s 1.56.

Although Shahbazyan is on a good run and skilled, Allen has the better resume and more high-level experience. When Allen is aggressive and displays a killer instinct, he has proven to be one of the best fighters at 185 pounds. Allen has scored 99.8 and 93.6 fantasy points in his previous two contests.

Value Play

Gabriel Bonfim ($7,900)

Since suffering his first career loss to Nicolas Dalby in November 2023, Gabriel Bonfim has won four consecutive fights and is coming off a second-round knockout against Randy Brown in November 2025. Bonfim, 28, now has an opportunity to pick up the biggest victory of his career against Muhammad, a former title holder.

After beating Leon Edwards at UFC 304 for the Middleweight title, Muhammad has suffered back-to-back losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry. It has been nearly two years since Muhammad’s last win. In this matchup, Bonfim is taller (6’1″ vs. 5’11”), while both fighters have a 72″ standing reach. Bonfim averages more takedowns (3.60 vs. 2.14) and significant strikes (4.61 vs. 4.43) than Muhammad.

Even though Muhammad has more experience, he is nearing his 38th birthday, and it is unknown whether he can still compete at the highest level. Getting Bonfim at $7,900 is an excellent value play as he has shown his elite potential recently. He has scored 94-plus points in two of his last three fights. If Bonfim comes out as the aggressor and dictates the pace of this contest, he will pose a ton of problems for the former champion.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $350K Throwdown [$100K to 1st]

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.