It’s going down at 170 pounds Saturday night, as former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad takes on surging prospect Gabriel Bonfim in the main event of UFC Vegas 118 at the Meta APEX.
The odds are dead even on DraftKings Sportsbook, with both fighters sitting at -110 on the moneyline. The fight total is set at O/U 3.5 rounds.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim. Check out DraftKings UFC Pick6 for my favorite picks for Saturday’s UFC event.
Belal Muhammad More Than 24:55 Fight Time
Saturday night’s main event is shaping up to be a drawn-out chess match. Former champion Belal Muhammad (24–5) isn’t exactly known for his finishing ability, with only six of his 24 professional victories coming by stoppage. He’s been finished only once in his career, a first-round knockout against Vicente Luque — nearly a decade ago.
On the other side of the cage, surging prospect Gabriel Bonfim (19–1) has seemingly adopted a more methodical approach since getting knocked out by Nicolas Dalby in November 2023, his first and only stoppage loss. He has fought to a pair of decisions in his last four bouts, vaporizing his 100% finish rate. Known primarily for his dangerous submission game, Bonfim will likely struggle putting away a truly elite wrestler in Muhammad, who has outclassed several of welterweight’s top grapplers.
Brendan Allen More Than 5:30 Control Time
Brendan Allen (26–7) put the middleweight division on notice in October, breaking former top contender Reinier de Ridder en route to a fourth-round TKO. The No. 4 middleweight in the world amassed a whopping 11:39 control time during the bout, and he should once again impose his suffocating jiu-jitsu Saturday night against unranked Edmen Shahbazyan (16–5).
While Shahbazyan is coming off a resurgent 2025, he enters the toughest test of his career without a single win against a top-10 opponent on his resume. He has also shown a vulnerability against formidable grapplers in the past, along with a dubious gas tank. If he can’t score an early knockout, it seems increasingly likely that “All In” Allen will drag him into the deep waters.
Bryce Mitchell Less Than 33.5 Significant Strikes
Bryce Mitchell (18–4) is back in action after nearly a year away from the Octagon. Originally tabbed to face a fading veteran in Victor Henry, a short-notice withdrawal has lined him up against undefeated bantamweight prospect Santiago Luna (8–0).
Known for his black-belt jiu-jitsu, “Thug Nasty” has fallen below 33.5 significant strikes in four of his last five bouts. He’d be wise to employ a similar grapple-heavy approach on Saturday against his opponent, who enters with an 88% finish rate — highlighted by a first-round knockout in his UFC debut against Quang Lee — and a 10-year age advantage.
Iwo Baraniewski More Than 103.5 Fantasy Points
Undefeated prospect Iwo Baraniewski (8–0) has hit the ground running in the UFC. The Polish light heavyweight preserved his 100% first-round finish rate by stopping both Ibo Aslan and Austen Lane in under 90 seconds, comfortably clearing 103.5 fantasy points in each bout.
Baraniewski should continue racking up fantasy points Saturday night against struggling Australian Junior Tafa (7–5). While he’s coming off a first-round knockout win over Kevin Christian in May, Tafa rolls into Saturday with a brutal 3–5 record inside the Octagon, including a KO loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima in February 2024.
Alessandro Costa More Than 0.5 Knockouts
Despite rising the MMA ranks on the back of his dangerous submission game, Alessandro Costa (15–5) seemingly realized that it’s way more fun to knock people out. All three of the Brazilian flyweight’s UFC wins have come by knockout or TKO — most recently a second-round flattening of Stewart Nicoll with a piercing liver shot in April.
Conversely, all of Matt Schnell’s (17–10) UFC losses — and nine of his career defeats — have come by stoppage, including two knockout losses in his last five fights. Expect Costa to test the veteran’s eroding chin early and secure another knockout victory.
Chelsea Chandler Less Than 74.5 Fantasy Points
Chelsea Chandler’s fight style isn’t exactly conducive to a high fantasy ceiling. Only three of her six pro wins have come by stoppage, and she’s dropped three of her past four bouts, finishing with fewer than 74.5 fantasy points in each loss. The former No. 13 women’s bantamweight has also struggled under pressure — literally running away from Norma Dumont to avoid getting knocked out during their 2023 meeting. Chandler settled for an uninspired unanimous decision loss.
She could find herself in a similar spot Saturday night against Priscila Cachoeira. While the Brazilian brawler has lost four of her last five bouts, eight of her 13 pro wins have come by knockout. Her relentless aggression and heavy hands should keep Chandler on her back foot, significantly limiting her fantasy upside.
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Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice, and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
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Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
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