The UFC is back at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a Fight Night event headlined by former Welterweight Champion Belal Muhammad vs. No. 11 Gabriel Bonfim. The Main Card for this event begins on Paramount+ at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 6.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of this week’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Gabriel Bonfim Moneyline vs. Belal Muhammad: Although Bonfim is nine years younger, he is a superior athlete to Muhammad, which should give him the advantage in this contest.
- Brendan Allen to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission vs. Edmen Shahbazyan: Allen enters this contest on a two-fight winning streak. Five of Allen’s last seven wins have come by finish, and if he comes out aggressive again, he should be able to pick up a finish against Shahbazyan.
- Fares Ziam to Win by Decision vs. Tom Nolan: Ziam is the more experienced fighter in this contest, and his versatile skill set should give him the edge over Nolan.
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Best Bets Breakdown
Gabriel Bonfim Moneyline (-110)
Muhammad went on an 11-fight unbeaten streak from April 2019 to July 2024 but now finds himself on a two-fight losing streak. At UFC 304 in July 2024, Muhammad beat Leon Edwards for the Welterweight title, which was his last victory in the UFC. Muhammad is taking on rising contender Bonfim, who has won four consecutive bouts.
Currently, both fighters are -110 to win this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 3.5 rounds, with the over at -188. Although Muhammad is the more accomplished fighter in this matchup, Bonfim statistically has the edge. Bonfim is landing 4.61 significant strikes per minute and 3.60 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Lately, Muhammad hasn’t appeared as the same fighter who previously won a UFC title. Muhammad has been passive and unable to establish an offensive game plan against Ian Machado Garry and Jack Della Maddalena. If Bonfim comes out confident and aggressive, he has all the tools to pick up the most significant victory of his career.
Brendan Allen to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+130)
Brendan Allen is coming off two big victories against Reinier de Ridder and Marvin Vettori. From September 2024 to February 2025, Allen lost two straight fights to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez, which ended his previous seven-fight winning streak. Now, Allen is facing Edmen Shahbazyan, who also enters this bout with a winning streak of his own.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Allen is the favorite at -185, with Shahbazyan being the underdog at +154. Both fighters in this contest are evenly matched, which should make this a competitive and exciting fight. Allen and Shahbazyan are both 6’2″, while Allen has a slight edge in standing reach (75″ vs. 74″).
Shahbazyan averages more significant strikes per minute (3.80 vs. 3.59) on the feet, but Allen has better striking accuracy (53% vs. 48%). Similarly on the ground, Shahbazyan lands more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.62 vs. 1.56), with Allen having the advantage in takedown accuracy (42% vs. 37%).
Although Shahbazyan has a ton of UFC experience, Allen enters this contest with the better resume. In the past, Shahbazyan has come up short when facing top-tier opponents in the Middleweight division. Five of Allen’s previous seven victories have come by knockout or submission. With that said, you can get Allen at +130 to pick up another finish in this contest at +130.
Fares Ziam to Win by Decision (+180)
Fares Ziam is riding a six-fight winning streak, with his latest win coming against Nazim Sadykhov at UFC 323 in December 2025. Ziam’s last loss in the UFC came in February 2022 against Terrance McKinney. Nolan, 26, enters this contest 10-1 with six finishes in his career. The Aussie has won four straight and is coming off his first career submission against Charlie Campbell.
Ziam is a -298 favorite, with Nolan being the underdog at +240 in this contest. Although Nolan is talented, Ziam has a significant advantage in experience, with 11 more fights on his resume. Ziam is the more well-rounded fighter in this contest, as he lands nearly one more takedown per contest than Nolan. Also on the feet, Ziam is the more efficient striker and better defensively. Since six of Ziam’s previous eight wins have come by decison, I’m taking him to win on the judges’ scorecards at +180.
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