The Atlanta Braves still sit atop the National League as perhaps the best two-way teams in baseball. Today, they start a new series as their road trip continues, this time at Great American Ball Park against the Cincinnati Reds. Both of these teams could certainly be postseason-bound, so this should be a fun little three-game set over the weekend.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Braves vs. Reds matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Reds prediction, preview
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are a cool 38-19 on the campaign, still holding the best record in baseball by a fairly comfortable margin. It should be noted that they’re road warriors as well, going 21-9 in their away split. The bats produce 5.25 runs per game, third most of any team, also ranking third in OPS at .756. The full slash line reads .259/.324/.432, while a .173 ISO is good for fourth in the MLB as well. Atlanta’s 77 home runs are also second most, but swinging for the fences has also led to an 0.38 BB/K ratio that’s on the lower end thanks to a BB% of just 8.0%. However, that’s just about the team’s only real weakness. The pitching staff is elite with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP that are fourth and second best, respectively. A 14.8% K-BB% is also quite solid, but it’s an MLB-leading LOB% of 78.4% that truly stands out. The bullpen alone is excellent too, bringing a 3.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP that both rank in the top three to match a 16.1% K-BB%.
RHP Grant Holmes takes the mound for Atlanta this evening with a 3-2 record in 10 starts. He’s amassed a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 48 Ks across 52.1 IP. His chase and whiff rates are both in the MLB’s upper quartile, though his average exit velocity and hard-hit rates leave something to be desired.
Cincinnati Reds
At the start of the season, the Reds looked to be improving on last year’s success. Now, they’ve cooled off significantly by going just 9-15 in May, dropping to fourth in the NL Central at just 29-26. The offense is respectable at 4.45 runs per game and a .707 OPS. Slashing .230/.315/.392, there’s some room for improvement in terms of OBP, but a .162 ISO is good for seventh in the MLB and they’ve blasted 68 homers as well. Those are encouraging marks, as is an 0.43 BB/K ratio and 10.4% BB%. However, a 24.2% is fourth highest in the sport, so perhaps they’re a bit too aggressive when it comes to plate approach. The arms are where things begin to collapse, though. Several hurlers — including ace Hunter Greene — are all sidelined at the moment due to injury. Overall, the staff has a 4.67 ERA that ranks 26th with a 1.44 WHIP and an MLB-worst K-BB% of 8.4%. The relievers are worse off, bringing a 4.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with a 7.6% K-BB%.
The Reds start RHP Chris Paddack, who began the season with the Marlins before being acquired by Cincinnati. He’s an ugly 0-6 in nine starts, tossing a 6.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with 35 strikeouts in 40.2 IP. He has an 81st-percentile chase rate and has admittedly been a bit unlucky this season, but is prone to giving up plenty of hits with six or more allowed in six of his starts.
Braves vs. Reds pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Braves as -143 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Reds come in at +119 odds to win outright. The run total also sits at 9.5 combined runs between these sides.
Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (+118)
Look. The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball and have blasted teams on the road with a .784 OPS and .194 ISO, the latter of which leads the MLB in that split. They now get a matchup against a starting pitcher who gives up plenty of contact with a 41.5% hard-hit rate, and he doesn’t get a ton of whiffs or strikeouts either. Paddack is something of a dream matchup for Atlanta. That goes for this Cincinnati bullpen as well, with the Reds surrendering 32 homers so far — third most of any relief unit. The Braves should shell them today to kick off the slate, earning a multi-run win to cover the run line,
