The Yankees and Mets play the first game of their three-game series on Friday, May 15.
The Yankees are -149 moneyline favorite, while the Mets are +123 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under seven runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Yankees vs. Mets game.
Yankees vs. Mets prediction, preview
The Subway Series is one of the best rivalry series in all of baseball. The two New York squads face off for the first time this season at Citi Field, home of the Mets. Despite being the home team, the Mets are the underdogs with Clay Holmes on the mound.
Holmes is in his second season with the Mets after 3.5 seasons with the Yankees. He spent those years as reliever, but is now an elite-level starting pitcher in Queens. He has a 1.86 ERA across eight starts, allowing no more than two earned runs in a game this year. This, however, will be his biggest test in the series opener. Not only is this an important series, it’s his first start against his former team.
The Yankees are sending out Cam Schlittler for the series opener on Friday. Holmes is great, but Schlittler has been even better this year. He has a 1.35 ERA across 53.1 innings and nine starts. He allowed three earned runs in back-to-back starts in early April, but he’s otherwise only allowed two total earned runs in his seven other starts. The second-year pitcher is one of the American League Cy Young frontrunners.
With two excellent pitchers on the mound, the over/under is set at seven runs. The Yankees rank fourth overall in runs per game this season, but they’ve been struggling lately, holding a 1-5 record over the last six games. During that stretch, the Yankees have scored zero, six, two, three, three and zero. Meanwhile, the Mets rank 29th in runs per game but are on a three-game win streak, scoring nine, three and 10 in this span.
Yankees vs. Mets Pick, Best Bet
This is a low over/under, but it’s a great play with Holmes and Schlittler on the mound. The Yankees’ offense is struggling lately, which bodes well for Holmes. Even though the Mets are playing well, Schlittler is going to silence them.
