One of college football’s oldest rivalries will be renewed this weekend. #5 Notre Dame (6-1) is in must-win territory, having just lost a heartbreaker vs. #8 BYU. Now, the Irish will attempt to bounce back against Navy (2-5, 1-4). For the Midshipmen, this is a matchup they have plenty of experience in. Can the home team deliver a massive upset on Saturday at Gillette Stadium?
The Fighting Irish are listed as 30.5-point favorites over the Midshipmen, with the total set at O/U 56.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Notre Dame vs. Navy Week 9 matchup.
Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction, preview
To say Week 7’s loss hurt is an understatement. The Irish were mere yards (and one second) from earning a hard-fought road victory. What ultimately held the team back was two-fold. Shaky defense during the first half was accompanied by in-opportunistic offense. Still, there’s no denying this squad has what it takes to earn a postseason berth. Quarterback CJ Carr remains a dark horse Heisman candidate. Through seven games, he’s thrown for 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and just one interception. On the ground, the trio of Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton have combined for 1,140 rushing yards and 17 scores. The latter of the three has come on strong as of late, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Navy may not possess elite size, especially compared to a Power Four school, but this group brings maximum effort to the field. The defense is only giving up 365.1 yards per game to its opponents, fourth-best in the American Conference. To boot, teams are gaining a conference-low 3.11 yards per rush attempt. With that being said, opponents are still averaging 29.1 points per game against the Midshipmen. Navy is coughing up 20.39 yards per pass completion, easily the worst mark among all FBS schools. If there was ever a time for Carr to sling it downfield, it’s Week 9.
The Midshipmen run the triple option offense, a run-heavy scheme that has led to decent results. The team has notched at least 34 points in each of their last three outings. Their 5.71 yards per rush attempt is second only to rival Army amongst all 14 AAC programs. Still, an extreme commitment to the ground game works much better when your side has a lead. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez hasn’t been asked to do much, throwing for 692 yards and seven touchdowns over seven games. However, the dual-threat leads the conference with 869 rushing yards (5.8 YPC).
Service academies utilizing the triple option can catch less experienced favorites by surprise. That’s unlikely to be the case this afternoon in Foxborough. Notre Dame has its fair share of matchups against both Army and Navy. Even if that wasn’t the case, this remains one of the nation’s elite defensive units. The Irish are giving up a college football-best 235.0 yards per game to opponents. In the process, they’re allowing a minuscule 2.39 yards per carry. Without much threat of a pass downfield, defensive coordinator Chris Ash should dial up some pressure around the line of scrimmage.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -30.5
It’s tempting to go with Navy given how massive this spread is. However, Notre Dame has won by more than 30 points in five of the last six meetings between these two rivals. To boot, the Irish won’t be shocked by the unorthodox triple option. In this neutral site contest, expect a massive victory for the favorites this afternoon.
