Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers became the 14th team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 series deficit, defeating a Celtics team that entered the series as -900 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have no time to rest on their laurels as Game 1 of the opening round with the Knicks kicks off tonight as Embiid continues his revenge tour. The Sixers star is officially listed as probable due to a hip contusion, but he returned for the final four games of the previous series just 17 days removed from an emergency appendectomy to get the job done, and the expectation is for him to play tonight.
Looking at the odds for the Eastern Conference semifinal series opener, the Knicks enter as 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 76ers hold +235 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 213.5.
Let’s dive into my favorite Joel Embiid player prop for Monday’s Game 1 matchup.
Best Joel Embiid prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Joel Embiid Over 27.5 Points (-112)
The return of Joel Embiid changed everything for the Sixers in the previous series. The former MVP averaged 28.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists across his four games played. Beyond just the raw production, he was a basketball chess piece the Celtics had no answer for. No player on the Boston roster was capable of stopping him from scoring, and Embiid leveraged this by daring them to leave him in single coverage and punishing them as a passer when double teams were thrown his direction. His passing was largely the biggest difference for unlocking the Sixers’ offensive attack and winning the series.
Expect the outlook to be a bit different against the Knicks. Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson have the size to provide more of a challenge, and New York will show more willingness to leave him in one-on-one coverage. Even with this in mind, these are still matchups that Embiid has largely gotten the better of. During the previous playoff matchup with the Knicks, Embiid led the NBA with 33.0 points per game and dropped 50 points in a victory, all while battling the effects of his meniscus tear and Bell’s palsy. He faced off with the Knicks twice in the regular season this year, scoring 38 and 26 points in these matchups.
Embiid is closer to 100% than he has been for a large part of the season and in past playoffs. Expect him to play in attack mode and also make an effort to get to the free-throw line and put the Knicks’ bigs in foul trouble. Towns does not need much bait to pick up some low-IQ fouls, and the Sixers are sure to create these chances frequently. Even while shining as a passer, Embiid scored 33+ points in two of the four games in the opening round series. Expect the 27.5 point prop line to be plenty manageable and for the two-time scoring champion to lead the Sixers’ offensive attack.
Joel Embiid Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+122)
One area that did fail Embiid in the opening round was his perimeter shooting. The former MVP shot a collective 3-for-20 from beyond the three-point arc against Boston across his four games played. However, he has proven reliable enough from this area of the floor throughout his career. Embiid is a career 33.9% three-point shooter and attempted 4.2 perimeter shots per game across the regular season.
Defending the three-point line has been a point of weakness for the Knicks all season. New York ranks 22nd in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 20th in opponents’ three-point percentage. The Knicks will be especially willing to give these looks to Embiid over the alternative options that are on the table. You cannot take away every offensive option, and Embiid will punish the Knicks from this area when left alone. He is also a player motivated by his matchup, and if Towns begins knocking down perimeter shots, expect Embiid to be eager to match this.
The Sixers’ star knocked down over 1.5 three-pointers in 14 of his 38 regular-season games played and at least one perimeter shot in 31 of these. This includes shooting 3-for-5 in one of the matchups against the Knicks in the regular season. Expect Embiid to be comfortable launching from deep and knock down a pair of three-pointers in the series opener tonight.
