Closing down Sunday’s nine-game NBA slate, the Golden State Warriors will take on the Denver Nuggets.
This will mark the fourth and final matchup between these two Western Conference opponents. Golden State picked up a 137-131 win in overtime during the season-opener and beat Denver 128-117 in their most recent matchup on February 22nd. The Nuggets won 129-104 on November 7th and will be looking to even the season series tonight.
The Nuggets enter as 12.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Warriors hold +470 odds of winning outright. The game total is set at 236.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Warriors vs. Nuggets Preview
The Golden State Warriors showed some encouraging signs in the early stages of the season, but have seen the year derailed due to injuries. They sit in 10th place in the Western Conference with a 36-38 overall record. Golden State has clinched a play-in tournament opportunity and is a half-game behind the Trail Blazers for the ninth seed. On the season, the Warriors have gone 32-42 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 45 of their 74 games played.
Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Al Horford, and Moses Moody will each remain sidelined tonight, while Seth Curry, Quinten Post, and Will Richard are each questionable. Of the available players, Brandin Podziemski will lead the charge and is posting averages of 13.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. Kristaps Porzingis has battled illness since coming over at the trade deadline, but is averaging 17.1 points and 4.7 rebounds across his opening 10 games played. He is coming off a 28-point output in the previous game. Draymond Green, Gui Santos, and Pat Spencer will also play notable roles.
The Warriors are averaging 115.2 points per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA. Golden State also ranks 19th in offensive rating, 24th in field goal percentage, and 18th in three-point percentage while leading the league in perimeter volume. Defensively, opponents are scoring 114.9 points per game against the Warriors, which ranks 14th in the league. Steve Kerr’s squad also ranks 15th in defense rating, 23rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 12th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Nuggets sit in fourth place in the Western Conference with a 47-28 record on the year. They enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak and have won seven of their last 10. Denver has gone 40-35 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 47 of their 75 games played.
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic headlines the production with 27.9 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game. Jamal Murray earned his first career All-Star appearance, posting averages of 25.5 points, 7.2 assists, and 4.4 rebounds while shooting 42.8% on three-point attempts. Aaron Gordon adds 16.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, while Peyton Watson has had a breakout year with averages of 14.9 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. Cam Johnson, Christian Braun, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown also play notable roles.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring at 121.3 points per game. They also rank first in offensive rating, second in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.9 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 21st in the league. They also rank 22nd in defensive rating, 14th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Warriors vs. Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
Injuries have been a major storyline for both of these teams this season. But the Nuggets look to be getting healthy at the right time, while the Warriors remain bogged down by their loaded injured list. My lean would be toward the game total going over, with the Nuggets’ game total going over at the highest rate in the league and the Warriors having some legitimate defensive concerns.
But I am backing the Nuggets to win and cover the 12.5-point spread.
Golden State has fared well against Denver this season. But the Warriors were at full strength during the season opener, and the Nuggets were without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson in the second loss. Denver enters this game on a five-game winning streak, although only one of these was by more than the 12.5-point margin. But Golden State is just 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 games. The Warriors are also 11-16 against the spread as an underdog and 17-21 ATS when playing on the road this year.
The return of Kristaps Porzingis has brought a bit of a spark to the offense, but the Warriors lack the necessary level of offensive creators to keep up with this Nuggets team. Denver masterfully runs their offensive sets with a variety of options, beyond what Golden State is capable of shutting down. The Nuggets have scored 117+ points in all three matchups and are averaging 125.7 points per game in these matchups. While the Warriors put up 131 points against the Wizards in the previous game, they have been held to 110 points or fewer in five of their last seven games before this.
Expect the Nuggets to have no trouble overcoming the Warriors’ defense and score at a rate that they cannot match. Golden State will continue to bring a high level of effort, but they do not have the talent to compete with their current injuries in mind. Expect Denver to continue adding to the lead throughout and push this to a comfortable double-digit win beyond the 12.5-point spread.
