So far in Florida, the PGA TOUR has featured fantastic finishes with comeback wins in the closing rounds for Nico Echavarria, Akshay Bhatia and Cameron Young. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort sets up another exciting event at a difficult course. The week starts with 133 players in the field, and the players will go off in threesomes from hole No. 1 and hole No. 10 starting at 7:35 a.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some of my best bets for Round 1 of the Valspar Championship.
The weather forecast for Thursday is cool and clear with fairly steady wind for most of the day. It doesn’t look like a huge advantage for either side of the draw, but Florida weather is always unpredictable, so be sure to keep close tabs on the weather as you plan your strategy.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 of the Valspar on Thursday, March 19. Let’s tee it up!
Matchup (3 Way) – Round 1 – Viktor Hovland (+104) over Patrick Cantlay
Two of the biggest names in the morning wave are Hovland and Cantlay, who are in the featured groups on ESPN’s early Round 1 streams. Hovland tees off at 8:13 a.m. ET with Corey Conners and Brooks Koepka, and Cantlay is playing with Xander Schauffele and Keegan Bradley in the group right after that.
Hovland has played this event three times in his career, finishing T-3 in 2021 and T-33 in 2022 before claiming the win at this event last year. He had a 70 in Round 1 before really locking in with a 67-69-67 over the last three rounds. In his 12 rounds at the event, he has never shot higher than a 71, and he leads the entire field in True Strokes Gained at Copperhead.
Cantlay also has a strong history at the event, but he hasn’t played it since 2017, when he finished runner-up to Adam Hadwin. He hasn’t played this event in the last eight years, though, so Hovland’s history seems stronger.
Vik also comes in with slightly better form than Cantlay. He made the cut in all five tournaments he has played this season with three top-15 finishes, including back-to-back T-13 finishes at the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS Championship. Cantlay missed the cut at Bay Hill but bounced back with a T-32 at THE PLAYERS. He’s always a threat, but Hovland’s better form coming to a track where he won last year makes him a good play in this 3-way matchup Thursday.
Jordan Spieth o3.5 Birdies or Better (-104)
Spieth got his second career PGA TOUR win at the Valspar back in 2015 and has made the cut in six of his eight career appearances. He finished in the top 10 three times, including the win, and posted a solid T-28 last year despite an opening round 74.
Backing Spieth is always an adventure since he is so volatile, which is why I’m targeting his birdies or better in my best bets for Round 1 this week. Even if he has a few wild holes with non-traditional paths and bogey adventures, he usually balances it out with great shots and par-breakers.
Even in his +3 opening round last year, he had three birdies or better then had five in Round 2, seven in Round 3, and three in Round 4. He has looked close to breaking through lately, but then has a few “adventure” holes that drop him down the leaderboard. He had 18 par-breakers last week, 15 at Bay Hill, and 16 at The Genesis Invitational. He has gone over this prop in four of his last seven rounds overall, and on a course he knows so well, he should be able to find four birdies or better in Thursday’s round. He’s scheduled to tee off at 1:14 p.m. ET in one of the featured afternoon groups.
Round 1 – 3 Ball Winner – Sahith Theegala (+160) over Ben Griffin and Tony Finau
Just after Spieth’s group, at 1:25 p.m. ET, the group of Theegala, Griffin and Finau is a fascinating trio to target for the last of my three Round 1 best bets. I love getting Theegala in his current form at +160, even though the other players in this threesome are also very strong.
Theegala has looked excellent so far in 2026, making the cut in each of his eight tournaments with five top-25 finishes. He ranks fifth in the field in Total Strokes Gained, 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last three months. He ranks higher than both Griffin and Finau in each of those categories over that span.
In the course history, Theegala also has an advantage. He played this event twice in the last four years, finishing T-7 in 2022 and T-36 last year. Griffin finished T-45, T-17 and MC in the last three seasons while Finau has only played the event once since 2021, missing the cut in 2024.
Finau has flashed hints at a return to form but struggled to a T-70 at TPC Sawgrass in his first event in Florida. Griffin missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass after struggling at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as well to another MC. He hasn’t finished in the top 25 since the end of January.
While both Griffin and Finau have the potential and pedigree to go low, Theegala’s better form and course history make him a strong play to claim this 3 Ball in Round 1.
