Day two of the Big East Tournament is underway, with some heavy hitters set to take the floor. #6 UConn (27-4, 17-3) has been as advertised, looking capable of earning yet another national championship. Still, the Huskies are looking to silence some doubters following a loss to Marquette last Saturday. Xavier (15-17, 6-14) has its own goals this evening, looking to make a surprise run under new head coach Richard Pitino.
UConn enters Thursday as 15.5-point favorites (-120) over Xavier. The total is set at 151.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Musketeers and the Huskies.
Xavier vs. UConn prediction, preview
It was a nice Big East tournament debut for Pitino, who ushered his Musketeers to an 89-87 victory over Marquette. Despite some pregame injury uncertainty, star forward Tre Carroll managed to suit up. This season, the senior has recorded 18.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 50.8% from the field. Despite a slow first half, Carroll managed to put up 18 points, nine rebounds and three blocks vs. the Golden Eagles. Sharpshooter Jovan Milicevic led the way for X with 21 points As a team, Xavier shot over 51% from the field.
While the win is nice, it didn’t ease some core concerns when it comes to the Musketeers’ style of play. They rank 164th in the nation with a 108.9 adjusted defensive efficiency. Coupled with a rapid-fire tempo on offense, and it’s easy to see why this school is surrendering over 80 points per game. Fortunately, the duo of Carroll and Milicevic is strong enough to keep Xavier in most contests. Still, two players can only take you so far against elite competition.
If history is any indicator, UConn is about the worst draw possible for X. For starters, the Huskies excel at limiting buckets, ranking 12th on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.4). A tall front court, led by Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr., can flummox the best of opposing front court players. On the other end of the floor, Connecticut is 34th in effective field goal percentage (55.6%) and 23rd in total rebounding percentage (53.9%). In comparison, Xavier ranks 283rd in the latter category (47.8%).
In each of the two meetings between these schools, the Huskies have won by at least 22 points. With that being said, the vibes aren’t exactly immaculate in Storrs right now. As previously mentioned, a six-point loss to now-eliminated Marquette doesn’t inspire much confidence. In fact, UConn has gone just 5-3 over its last eight games. That’s not a bad record, but it’s below the standard of excellence set by head coach Dan Hurley. Perhaps a trip to Madison Square Garden is what this prestigious program needs to get its groove back.
Xavier vs. UConn pick, best bet
Carroll answered any questions about his health on Wednesday, leading Xavier to a crucial victory. Still, the Huskies have far better personnel down low to stop the All-Big East selection. Outside of Milicevic, I’m not sure the Musketeers will have enough star power to keep up. We’ve seen UConn bounce back before from a bad loss. Going against these proven winners tonight feels like a risky proposition.
