MACtion is on tap this week, with conference tournament play set to tip off in Cleveland. The second game on Thursday’s slate features second-seeded Akron (26-5, 17-1), a dark horse March Madness squad. If the Zips are going dancing, they’ll need to take care of business this afternoon. That means taking down #7 Buffalo (17-14, 7-11). Can the Bulls take down a top-tier mid-major?
Akron enters as 12.5-point favorites (-118) over Buffalo. The total is set at 159.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Thursday’s game between the Bulls and Zips.
Buffalo vs. Akron prediction, preview
It’s been quite the turnaround for Buffalo, a program that improved its win total by eight games this season. Head coach George Halcovage has brought a fun, uptempo style of play to Western New York. The Bulls have posted a 115.4 offensive rating, 69th-best in college basketball. Their 113.1 adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom also ranks as fourth-best in the MAC. That’s led to some impressive counting stats for several of the team’s top players. Ryan Sabol is a name to watch; the junior is averaging 18.7 points, 3.4 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game this season.
Unfortunately for UB, leading scorer Daniel Freitag (head) won’t be suiting up tonight. That’s a tough blow, especially considering how the offense flows between him and Sabol. Only one other Buffalo player, Angelo Brizzi (14.4), is putting up more than 8.4 points per game. To make matters worse, this group hasn’t won many low-scoring matchups. The Bulls have surrendered a 55.2% effective field goal percentage, 31st-worst in the nation this season. They’ve given up 80+ points in four of their last eight appearances.
If not for a three-point loss to #20 Miami OH, Akron would have gone undefeated in conference play. Even with that result, there’s an argument that the RedHawks aren’t the MAC’s team to beat. After all, advanced metrics seem to favor the Zips. Their +13.50 net rating is 59th-best in college basketball, due in part to an electric scoring attack. Akron is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency (120.8) and 30th in adjusted tempo (70.5). Tavari Johnson is the kind of player that could become a March legend. This season, the guard has notched a conference-leading 20.2 points per game on 52/37/90 shooting splits.
It’s not as if this is a one-man show, either. Johnson is buoyed by a strong supporting cast, including Amani Lyles (14.8 PPG)and Shammah Scott (12.6 PPG). At guard, Eric Mahaffey leads Akron with a 42.9% three-point percentage. Down low, his brother Evan has chipped in with 10.4 points and 5.4 rebounds. In short, there are plenty of weapons at head coach John Groce’s disposal. It’s also worth mentioning that this group is battle-tested. The Zips have reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two seasons.
If there’s one notable weakness for Akron, the school does surrender plenty of three-pointers. That could be a problem against the Bulls, who rank 21st in the nation from beyond the arc (37.9% 3PT). However, the Zips are even better in that regard, posting the nation’s seventh-best clip from long distance (39.2%). If this becomes a bombs-away affair, it may favor the more fast-paced, experienced squad.
Buffalo vs. Akron pick, best bet
The Bulls deserve praise for their impressive turnaround, developing into one of the MAC’s better teams. Still, this feels like punching above their weight class. The loss of Freitag doesn’t help Buffalo, either. Miami OH gets all the attention, but the Zips are good enough to qualify for an at-large bid. This Akron crew will be looking to make a big statement on Thursday.
