The Patriot League does not do soft landings, and this final feels like the league distilled into one night. Boston University and Lehigh both walk in at 17-16, both one win from the bracket, but the room tilts toward the home side because the game is in Bethlehem, where Lehigh is 12-4 at Stabler Arena and 8-2 at home in league play, while BU has gone 6-11 away from home. The path here has been dramatic on both ends—BU needed late walk-off shots to escape American and then stun 26-7 Navy, while Lehigh got a half-court buzzer-beater from Nasir Whitlock against Holy Cross before beating Colgate in the semifinal. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Lehigh Mountain Hawks and the Boston University Terriers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Lehigh vs. Boston University prediction, preview
BU’s cleanest argument is obvious: the Terriers are the sharper shooting offense. They lead the Patriot League in scoring in conference games at 77.1 points per game, and nationally they sit at 58.1% effective field goal percentage, 39.5% from three, 57.1% on twos, and 49.3% overall, which is a nasty mix for a title dog to deal with. Michael McNair is the headliner there at 16.9 points per game and 46.1% from three, Ben Defty is finishing at 69.9% from the field, and BU’s offense has become very concentrated in a good way. The problem is that the Terriers also allow a 53.7% opponent eFG, 36.3% opponent three-point shooting, and they generate very little defensive chaos, ranking near the bottom nationally in steals per play and opponent turnovers forced. Lehigh is not as pretty offensively, but the profile is more championship-useful: 72.3 points per game, 53.3% eFG, a sturdier defensive baseline with 50.9% opponent eFG allowed, and a shot diet that can still manufacture free points instead of living only on jumpers.
BU has three live scorers, and that is why the Terriers are dangerous for 40 minutes: McNair at 16.9, Defty at 14.8, and Chance Gladden at 14.5 with 4.7 assists and back-to-back tournament game-winners. Gladden then dropped 26 on Navy, McNair added 22, and Defty gave them 14 on 6-for-7 shooting, which is exactly how BU steals big games—it puts three functional scorers on the floor and dares the opponent to guard cleanly all night. But Lehigh has the best single closer in the building. Whitlock is sitting around 21 points per game for the season, scored 30 in both regular-season meetings with BU, hit the half-court winner against Holy Cross, then followed it with 22 points and 10 assists against Colgate. Hank Alvey gives Lehigh the second championship-game lever that matters just as much—he just hung 30 on Colgate after scoring 14 against Holy Cross, and that inside scoring keeps Lehigh from becoming a one-guard prayer circle.
Boston University vs. Lehigh pick, best bet
What keeps bringing me back to Lehigh is that the season series already mapped out two separate winning scripts. In Boston, Lehigh won 93-91 in overtime by hitting 11 threes, going 20-for-23 at the line, forcing 11 BU turnovers, and surviving a night when BU still shot 53% and scored 91. In Bethlehem, Lehigh won 70-67 even though both teams shot 50.0% from the floor, because the Mountain Hawks won the math that usually decides championship games: eight threes to seven, 12 free throws made to four, fewer fouls, and Whitlock calmly closing the game with 9-for-9 work at the stripe. That is the key to the whole handicap. BU can absolutely get hot enough to win, but Lehigh has already shown it can beat this exact opponent in a track meet and in a grinder, and that matters more to me than prettier season-long shooting tables. Add in Brett Reed clearing 300 career wins in the second BU meeting and Lehigh reaching the title game for the seventh time in program history, and the home side looks more naturally shaped for this particular kind of night.
That lands me on Lehigh moneyline +120 as the best bet, playable to about +105. In a game lined BU -2.5, I would rather buy the team with home floor, the better championship-game profile, the best closer, and two regular-season receipts showing it can solve both the high-possession and low-possession versions of this matchup. One thing that can beat this ticket is BU turning the night into a pure shotmaking exam, because the Terriers are elite from deep and McNair plus Gladden can flip a short final with three or four nuclear possessions. Still, the side I trust to own the last four minutes is Lehigh.
Final score: Lehigh 74, Boston University 71.
Best bet: Lehigh (+120) vs. Boston University
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
