The McNeese Cowboys and Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks will square off tonight with the Southland Conference championship on the line. McNeese is chasing their third consecutive conference tournament victory, while Stephen F. Austin is the current regular season champion.
These two teams have faced off twice already this season and split the matchups to this point. McNeese State picked up a 66-64 victory in the first game, while Stephen F. Austin won 67-60 in the most recent matchup.
Looking at the odds for tonight, McNeese State enters as a 3.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with -162 odds of winning outright. Stephen F. Austin holds +136 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 132.5 points.
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin prediction, preview
The McNeese State Cowboys enter this matchup with a 27-5 record and have gone 19-3 in Southland Conference play. They are coming off back-to-back seasons in which they have qualified for the NCAA Tournament and will be looking to extend this streak with a victory tonight. McNeese enters this matchup on a nine-game winning streak and has won 13 of its last 14. On the season, the Cowboys have gone 13-16 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 16 of their 29 qualifying matchups played.
Larry Johnson headlines the scoring with 17.5 points per game, along with his 5.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals. Tyshawn Archie adds 14.3 points, 2.8 assists and 1.6 steals, shooting 36.7% on three-point attempts. Javohn Garcia is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. In addition, DJ Richards, Garwey Dual, Jerrell Colbert, Jacolb Cole, and Carl Cherenfant each also play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, McNeese State is scoring 80.2 points per game, which ranks 83rd among the 365 D1 teams. The Cowboys also rank 48th in offensive rating, 97th in team field goal percentage, and 314th in team three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring the 27th-fewest points per game against the Cowboys at 66.7 per contest. McNeese State also ranks 24th in defensive rating, 30th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 115th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and generates the second-most steals in the country.
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks hold a 28-4 record on the season, and have gone 20-2 in Southland Conference play. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and have won 16 of their last 17 games. The four losses on the season came against New Orleans, McNeese, UT Arlington, and Fresno State. On the season, Stephen F. Austin has gone 22-8 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 18 of their 30 qualifying matchups.
Keon Thompson headlines the production for the Lumberjacks, posting averages of 18.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. Lateef Patrick Jr. is the lone other player to average in double-figures with 15.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and a team-high 1.4 steals per game. Narit Chotikavanic leads the conference with a 39.6% three-point percentage and posts overall averages of 9.4 points and 2.8 rebounds. Jerald Colonel leads the conference with 2.5 blocks per game along with his 4.9 points and 7.3 boards, while Kam Burton, Chrishawn Christmas, and Gediminas Alisas also play notable roles.
Matt Braeuer’s squad is scoring 76.9 points per game, which ranks 153rd in the country. Stephen F. Austin also ranks 74th in offensive rating, 195th in field goal percentage, and 42nd in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 65.6 points per game against the Lumberjacks, which ranks 14th in the country. They also rank 27th in defensive rating, 62nd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and seventh in opponents’ three-point percentage.
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin pick, best bet
McNeese State picked up a victory in the first matchup between these two teams by a score of 66-64. This was despite Stephen F. Austin leading for 75% of the matchup and shooting more efficiently. In the second game between these two conference opponents, Stephen F. Austin won 67-60. The Lumberjacks led for 92% of this matchup, stretching the lead to as large as 14 points.
Both these teams have been impressive this season, and this will be an entertaining matchup with plenty on the line. The game total has remained under the 132.5 line in both matchups thus far this year, and my lean is that this trend will continue Both these teams rank in the top 27 for opponents’ points allowed, and the intensity of this matchup will make every basket difficult to earn.
But I am backing Stephen F. Austin to get the outright upset and win the Southland Conference Tournament to punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Lumberjacks’ defense is legitimate, ranking 62nd in opponents’ field goal percentage and seventh in opponents’ three-point percentage, and will set the tone tonight. With McNeese’s 314th-ranked three-point percentage in mind, expect production from the perimeter to be a non-factor in this game. Stephen F. Austin is also 22-8 against the spread on the season, and has constantly taken care of business.
Without discounting McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin is the better team with more ways to win. They have held control for the majority of both matchups and faded down the stretch in the first game. Count on them keeping their foot on the gas tonight and proving themselves as the better team by getting the outright victory to punch their ticket to the Big Dance tonight.
