Four straight losses have put SMU (19-12, 8-10) firmly on the March Madness bubble. To feel secure, the Mustangs need to rack up a few wins at minimum during the NCAA Tournament. That means taking care of business this afternoon vs. Syracuse (15-16, 6-12). To cap off an otherwise disappointing campaign, can the Orange earn a postseason victory?
SMU enters as 4.5-point favorites (-108) over Syracuse. The total is set at 154.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Orange and Mustangs.
Syracuse vs. SMU prediction, preview
On paper, it’s difficult to pinpoint anything that ‘Cuse does particularly well. The Orange have gotten a bit unlucky, but they still sit at a mediocre 80th on KenPom in net rating (+10.29). If there’s one notable bright spot for this group, they rank 57th in the nation in average height (78.3″). In addition, their 15.6% block percentage is sixth-best in all of college basketball. That level of rim protection will need to sustain itself this afternoon against an elite SMU offense.
Defense is one thing; keeping up with the fast-paced Mustangs will require some buckets, as well. If anyone is going to step up for SU, it’s leading scorer Donnie Freeman. The do-it-all forward has recorded 17.0 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game this season. In the back court, Nate Kingz (11.8 PPG), JJ Starling (11.2 PPG) and Naithan George (11.0 PPG) have been solid. Bench pieces Kiyan Anthony (lower body) and Sadiq White (shoulder) are questionable to suit up tonight.
Speaking of injuries, B.J. Edwards (ankle) is doubtful to take the floor. The guard ranks third on Southern Methodist’s roster with 12.7 points per game. Fortunately for the Mustangs, there’s enough talent in the back court to survive this loss. Kevin “Boopie” Miller (19.4 PPG) and Jaron Pierre (17.5 PPG) form one of the ACC’s most lethal duos. With those two leading the way, it’s no shock that SMU is 20th on KenPom with a 123.8 adjusted offensive efficiency. The team is especially dangerous from beyond the arc, ranking 23rd in three-point percentage (37.8%).
The rub on this group is the other end of the floor. SMU’s adjusted defensive efficiency is a lackluster 106.3, 108th in the nation. To make matters worse, Andy Enfield’s crew has surrendered 90+ points in two of their last three games. Recent losses to Cal, Stanford and Florida State aren’t exactly confidence-boosters. Regardless, the Orange aren’t the most intimidating opponent. They also give up 35.5 three-point attempts per field goals attempted. That’s the 60th-highest mark among all Division I schools. The Mustangs and their sharpshooters are sure to try their luck from deep on Tuesday.
Syracuse vs. SMU pick, best bet
Two ice-cold teams clashing in a win or go home scenario? It’s difficult to have too much faith in either side. However, this could be an ideal spot to buy low on SMU. After all, the Mustangs wield a more potent offense, an elite player in Miller, and a proven track record. Against an Orange team with little to play for, expect the favorites to cover this spread.
