The NBA world pauses for All-Star festivities over the next few days, but hoops fans seeking competitive play are in luck. There are plenty of excellent matchups taking place across the NCAA landscape on Saturday, one of which pits the No. 3 Houston Cougars against Kansas State in Big 12 play. With UH riding a five-game winning streak and still unbeaten at home, can the Coogs keep this recent run of form alive at the Fertitta Center?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Kansas State vs. Houston on Saturday, February 14.
Kansas State vs. Houston prediction, preview
Kansas State Wildcats
At 10-14 overall with a 1-10 record in the Big 12, Kansas State seems on track for its second straight season under the .500 mark, barring a turnaround. The Wildcats ride a five-game losing streak into this contest and are just 1-6 on the road, and they’re yet to win a contest against a Quad 1 opponent thus far. Of Quad 2 victories, they’ve beaten California, Tulsa and Creighton but lost to teams like Seton Hall, UCF and Cincinnati.
Kansas State sits 105th in the KenPom rankings with a +6.49 NETRTG. Granted, the Wildcats have played one of the nation’s more difficult schedules — ranked 32nd in terms of opponent NETRTG — but the results haven’t been stellar. They’re far better on offense than on the other side of the ball with 80.9 PPG, which comes more as a result of high pace than efficient shooting. The team sits at 46.1% from the field and 36.6% from three, the latter of which ranks 49th in the country. The 18.0 assists per game Kansas State are the 15th-most of any team, though the group’s AST/TO ratio falls to 59th overall. The Wildcats are pedestrian on the glass with 34.8 rebounds per outing, and the defensive intensity is an even larger issue. They concede 80.8 PPG to opponents, good for 318th among all Division I teams.
Houston Cougars
As for Houston, the expectation remains a deep NCAA Tournament run as in the last several seasons. The Cougars are 22-2 overall and a strong 10-1 in conference play, an identical record to Arizona, the No. 1 team in the nation. Of course, UH does sit No. 3 in the AP Poll itself and brings seven wins across nine Quad 1 contests, losing only to Tennessee and Texas Tech, both fellow ranked opponents.
Overall, Houston ranks fourth via KenPom with a NETRTG of +33.75, a very impressive mark even though the opponent strength of schedule falls 48th. The Cougars’ identity comes from the country’s best defense, allowing just 61.2 PPG to opponents with the 14th-lowest eFG% from foes as well. While not particularly great on the glass, they average 36.8 rebounds per game and create plenty of extra possessions with the 13th-most turnovers by opponents. The Coogs also cough the ball up themselves at an NCAA-low rate, ranking fifth in AST/TO ratio while dishing 15.2 assists per contest. On offense, they average 78.3 PPG while shooting 45.5% from the field and 34.1% from three.
Kansas State vs. Houston pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Houston as a 22.5-point favorite on Saturday at home with -8000 odds to win on the Moneyline. Kansas State’s odds of an outright upset sit at +2200 with the game total set at 147.5 points. Betting splits indicate 97% of straight bets on the Cougars to win with 62% on the over.
Houston brings a star duo of Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp into this one, giving the program a couple of top options. Flemings averages a team-best 16.6 points and 5.4 assists as a true freshman, while Sharp produces 16.3 points while shooting 38.5% from three. As for Kansas State, P.J. Haggerty posts a team-high 23.3 points and 5.1 rebounds, also dishing 4.1 assists. However, the Wildcats still miss Abdi Bashir Jr., a sharpshooting guard still weathering an injury. While David Castillo and Nate Johnson average double-digit scoring, there’s very little firepower on the rest of the roster, which should to put the ball in the basket against a truly elite defense.
Haggerty may get his points, but the Cougars will sell out to stop him and force other players to step up. Beyond that, the Wildcats have lost all but one of their games against ranked opponents by at least 20 points, with the lone exception a 17-point loss to Indiana. It may be a close call, but Houston should stifle K-State in this one to swing a victory and cover that 22.5-point spread.
