Two weeks of NFL season are in the books, and while the verdict is still out on many teams, we’re starting to learn who some of these teams are. I’m publishing the NFL Week 3 best bets cheat sheet on Tuesday night with three plays, and will continue to update with more picks throughout the week. Be sure to check back.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1pm ET)
I’m out on what we’ve seen from the Steelers through two games. This offense is inept. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it was able to mask some of its ineptitude in Week 1 against the Falcons. Cooper Rush led an even worse offense, but the game was still 13-13 in terms of offensive points — the difference in the game was T.J. Watt’s defensive touchdown.
The Steelers followed it up with a three-point showing on the road in New England. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The run game is generating 3.4 yards per carry. There’s no explosiveness to this offense, and no creativity to spark explosiveness.
Meanwhile, we know what the Bengals are capable of offensively. But did the defense finally make the jump this season? In Week 1, Cincy sacked Baker Mayfield four times and forced him into three fumbles — three of four fumbles in the game, all recovered by the Bengals. Last week, Cincinnati went to Houston and held the Texans to six points. I like what I’ve seen from the Bengals, and frankly, I’d fade the Steelers against any capable operation right now.
NFL Pick: CIN -3.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (Sunday 1pm ET)
I played Boston College and Virginia Tech under on Saturday, purely due to the weather. That’s the handicap here as well, with plenty of rain and high winds expected for this game. That said, the matchup is pretty lackluster as well. The Giants managed just six points on Monday with Jameis Winston at quarterback and the Giants defense allowed just 20 points in the home opener to the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Titans are averaging just 15 points per game on the young season. Good matchup and situation for a very sloppy game.
NFL Pick: UNDER 37.5 (-110)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1pm ET)
C.J. Stroud likes targeting his tight end, throwing to Dalton Schultz 22 times through two games. In Week 1, Schultz caught just 4-of-8 targets for 35 yards against Buffalo, but the absence of Nico Collins is huge here. With Collins out in Week 2, Schultz torched the Bengals for a 12-140-0 line on a whopping 14 targets.
Yes, the Bengals constantly rank among the worst in the NFL against the TE position, but so do the Colts. Schultz finished his two matchups with Indy with 55 and 73 receiving yards last season. Things have only gotten worse for the Colts so far in 2026. Indy ranks dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed by a significant margin, giving up nearly 350 yards per game through the air.
That includes 83.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends. And those games have come to big names that are clearly on the way down in Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. Terrific matchup and situation for Schultz to go off in Week 3.
NFL Pick: Dalton Schultz OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25pm ET – Brazil)
Lamar Jackson is off to a typical start to 2026. He rushed seven times in the opener against the Colts and gained 40 yards, including a touchdown. He followed it up in Week 2 against the Saints with just four carries, but gained 34 yards.
The Cowboys have been struggling to defense mobile quarterbacks in the early going this season. Jaxson Dart rushed 11 times for 54 yards back in Week 1, and last week Jayden Daniels was able to pile up 69 rushing yards on seven carries. Not to mention, Daniels only played half the game before leaving with an elbow injury.
Quarterbacks tend to scramble more when it matters, and the Ravens are in a spot where that should come to fruition. We have a tight spread on the game, and Baltimore is coming off a bad loss, blowing a big lead to the Saints.
There’s also a handicap that comes into play here with the field in Brazil. The field conditions are said not to be great, and we saw a lot of slipping and sliding in the past couple of games on this field — Chiefs vs. Chargers in 2025 and Eagles vs. Packers in 2024. While you might be thinking that works against Jackson’s ability to run the ball, it goes both ways.
With defenders hitting the ground as well, it could easily open up big plays for Jackson to exploit on the ground. That’s been the case in the previous games on this field. Last year, Patrick Mahomes put up a 6-57-1 line as a rusher, and Justin Herbert picked up 32 yards on seven carries. Jalen Hurt rushed for 33 yards two years ago, while Jordan Love opted not to run — you may remember he injured his leg in that game and many blamed the field.
Jackson is the most dangerous weapon of the bunch, and the matchup against the Cowboys has been a strong spot in the early 2026 sample. I’ll back Jackson to have a big game on the ground here.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (Sunday 1pm ET)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1pm ET)
I thought Week 2 was the perfect sell high spot on Arizona following its Week 1 win over the Chargers, but also a good buy-low spot on Seattle. The Seahawks still don’t seem to be getting respect with Sam Darnold injured. Darnold doesn’t even factor into the equation here for me. Drew Lock has proven perfectly capable, completing 73% of his passes for over 400 yards. He knows where to go with the ball, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has posted a 17-277-4 line through just two games.
That’s all great, but what makes me so comfortable backing Seattle is the defense. The Seahawks held Drake Maye well under 200 passing yards on 33 attempts in Week 1, sacking him three times and picking him off three times in the fourth quarter. New England was held to just 10 points. Jacoby Brissett was held to 95 passing yards in Week 2 on an insane 3.4 yards per pass attempt. Good luck to Marcus Mariota and this 0-2 Washington team.
I thought the Chargers might struggle this season due to a really tough schedule. The tough part wasn’t supposed to be starting the season with home games against the Cardinals and Raiders, but here we are. The Chargers are an embarrassing 0-2, and now the schedule does actually get difficult.
The Chargers have simply been lifeless on both sides of the ball. Now they travel across the country for an early kickoff in Buffalo against a team firing on all cylinders. The Bills could tighten up on defense a bit, but keeping up with Josh Allen and this offense will be a tall task for Justin Herbert and company.
NFL Pick: SEA/BUF ML Parlay (-135)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
Through two weeks, the Falcons have been as bad as it gets. Atlanta has one offensive touchdown, and is somehow yet to run a play in the red zone. However, many of the struggles boil down to one major factor — dreadful quarterback play. That could change on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.
Michael Penix will make his season debut for the Falcons, and is in line to start his 13th game in the NFL. Over his last 11 starts alongside Drake London, Penix has left no doubt who his WR1 is. London is averaging over 100 receiving yards per game over that 11 game span, topping the century mark in seven of those games. London could be worth looking at to ladder some of his alternate yardage props given his high ceiling. He also has eight touchdown receptions in the last 10 games he’s played with Penix at the starting QB.
While London is averaging just 40 yards per game this season, it has come with two games of Cooper Rush. Expect a big upgrade on Thursday with Penix locked in on London. The Green Bay secondary surrendered 8-92-2 line to Justin Jefferson in Week 1. Good time to buy-low on London.
