With two games left in the regular season, the Valkyries are within reach of the No. 1 overall seed in the WNBA playoffs. To stay in the race, they have to beat a Portland Fire team they’ve already beaten three times this season. It sounds easy enough for Golden State, but no guarantees exist in this league.
The Valkyries enter as 14.5-point road favorites with -1200 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire are +750 underdogs, with the game total set at 157.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Valkyries-Fire matchup.
Valkyries vs. Fire Prediction, Preview
Golden State’s three wins against the Fire came in typical Valks fashion. They’ve held Portland to 70.7 points per game in those matchups, with an average 17-point margin of victory. Golden State’s swarming defense has put heavy pressure on former Valkyrie Carla Leite, shutting down Portland’s offense. After being taken by Portland in the expansion draft, Leite has admirably stepped into the lead-guard role for the Fire. Valks head coach Natalie Nakase seemingly has her number, with the defense holding Leite to just 22 combined points on 5-of-14 shooting with seven turnovers across two matchups.
The game plan for the Valkyries remains the same: get the ball out of Leite’s hands and make everyone else beat you. Bridget Carleton hasn’t been the answer so far and Megan DiLeo is struggling to get enough touches to make an impact. Golden State’s passing suppression defense has frustrated many bigs this year, and DiLeo is no different; with Portland’s lack of passing talent, it’s going to be tough for this offense to get going.
Portland has to do what few teams can do: keep the Valkyries from going nuclear beyond the arc. No team in the W takes or makes more threes than Golden State, and they’ve repeatedly punished the Fire from three. In particular, Portland has to watch out for Kayla Thornton. Though she hasn’t replicated her All-Star play from last season, she has come to life against the Fire, averaging 16.3 PPG over their three matchups. Emily Engstler has to take on much of the responsibility to keep her contained.
A real X-factor here is Kaitlyn Chen. Golden State’s bench guard has popped off several times during her breakout campaign, and some of her best scoring games have come against Portland. Chen scored 17 points in 25 minutes against Portland in their matchup this past Friday, beating them off the drive with regularity and knocking down five threes. If Chen can provide the extra offensive punch the Valkyries tend to need, they have to like their chances.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Valkyries vs. Fire Pick, Best Bet
At a certain point, a matchup becomes kind of sad. The Valkyries are a defensive behemoth with no major injuries rolling toward a top seed in the WNBA playoffs. On the other end, the Fire are a banged-up squad with no clear identity bound for the lottery. Golden State will take home this win in emphatic fashion to further solidify their playoff seeding.
