The Mavericks are hosting the Celtics on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 223.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Celtics preview, prediction
Decimated by injuries this season, the Mavericks are the 12th seed in the Western Conference at 19-30 and they rank 21st in net rating. Anthony Davis (hand) remains out and Kyrie Irving (knee) still doesn’t have a timetable for a return. Furthermore, PJ Washington (concussion), D’Angelo Russell (doubtful, illness) and Brandon Williams (doubtful, leg) will all be inactive tonight, leaving Dallas very thin.
Cooper Flagg has been handling a huge role with his team shorthanded and the No. 1 pick has put up some godly stat lines in his last two starts, posting 49 points and 10 rebounds vs. the Hornets and then 34 points and 12 rebounds vs. the Rockets. Unfortunately, Dallas lost both of these games and the club has dropped four straight entering this matchup with the Celtics.
While Flagg’s offensive numbers have been elite, he has been lackluster defensively and ranks second-to-last in plus/minus for the Mavericks this season as a result. Flagg will likely continue to put on a show on offense tonight with his team so understaffed, but Dallas snapping its four-game losing streak is going to be a tough task vs. this Boston team that is 15-10 on the road this season.
This Jayson Tatum-less Celtics team has proved the doubters wrong in a big way this season. The club sits third in the Eastern Conference at 31-18 and the team impressively ranks third in net rating. Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard are all having career seasons as they fill the void left behind by Tatum, and many of Boston’s role players have had great stretches this season. Anfernee Simons, notably, is coming off a 27-point outing vs. the Bucks on Sunday and has been one of the top bench scorers in the league this season. However, the Celtics did what many speculated they would do, as the club just traded the guard today. Simons is heading to the Bulls in exchange for Nikola Vucevic.
Swapping these two players makes a ton of sense for the Celtics, as their main flaw this season has been their lack of a true scoring threat up front. Vucevic is 35 years old, but he is still averaging 16.9 PPG on 50% shooting this season and he can stretch the floor, shooting 37% from beyond the arc. Vucevic is a big addition for the Celtics, but the big man obviously won’t be available to make his Boston debut vs. the Mavericks with this trade unfolding just hours before tip-off. With Simons out of the equation tonight, Brown, White and Pritchard all will see extra opportunities and Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh will see more minutes off the bench.
Mavericks vs. Celtics pick, best bet
The Celtics could have some hiccups tonight in their first game without Simons, but they should still take care of business and defeat this understaffed Mavericks team. Boston is only 8-7 ATS against Western Conference teams this season, however, so covering this 7.5-point spread may be slightly difficult for the Celtics.
Backing this game for under its 223.5-point total is a better bet to consider. Losing Simons hurts Boston’s offense and strengthens its defense simultaneously, and the Mavericks as a whole should struggle to score with so many key players out, especially with a Celtics defense on the other side that has held three of its last four opponents to under 100 points. Both Boston and Dallas have winning records for the under this season and this 223.5-point total feels too high for this matchup.
