Tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET, the Michigan State Spartans host the Northwestern Wildcats in a Big Ten contest. Michigan State is 13-2 this season, while Northwestern has an 8-6 record. The Spartans are coming off a 29-point victory against USC on January 5, while Northwestern lost its previous game against Minnesota on January 3. This has been a one-sided matchup, with Michigan State holding a 35-7 all-time series lead over Northwestern.
Here is my best bet for tonight’s Northwestern vs. Michigan State college basketball matchup.
Northwestern vs. Michigan State (6:30 p.m. ET)
On KenPom, Michigan State is ranked No. 12 with the third-best defensive rating and 60th offensive rating in the country. Michigan State only allows 64.4 points per game, the fewest in the Big Ten and the 14th fewest in college basketball. The Spartans have only given up 70 or more points three times this season. While their defense is so good, their offense has lagged behind. Michigan State only scores 79.1 points per game, which is 13th in the Big Ten and 139th in the country.
Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper make up Michigan State’s frontcourt. Kohler averages 14.2 points and 10.2 rebounds while Cooper records 9.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per contest. Jeremy Fears is the Spartans’ starting point guard and is second in the country in assists per game with nine.
Northwestern has lost two of its past three games and has won only two this season against high-major teams. Their last three wins have come against Howard, Valparaiso, and Jackson State. Northwestern is 59th on KenPom, with a 102nd defensive rating and a 52nd offensive rating. Although the Wildcats only average 80.4 points, their leading scorer, Nick Martinelli, averages 23 points per game. Martinelli is fourth in college basketball in scoring this season.
Michigan State did lose to No. 10 Nebraska 58-56, but has won its previous three contests against unranked Big Ten teams. All six of Northwestern’s losses have come by 12 or fewer points. Also, five of Northwestern’s six losses have been by six or fewer. With Martinelli and Arrinten Page scoring at a high level, it gives them a chance every night. With two of Michigan State’s last three Big Ten games being close, I’m taking Northwestern to cover the spread of +13.5.
