The 2025 College Football Playoff kicked off last night, and the action continues on Saturday with a full slate of games. While the matchups between lower teams in the bracket and the blue bloods are predictably lopsided, the meeting between the No. 11 seed Tulane Green Wave and No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels does carry some intrigue. If there’s any contest which could see an improbable upset take place, it’s this one.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tulane vs. Ole Miss in this College Football Playoff matchup.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction, preview
Tulane Green Wave
The challenger out of New Orleans, Louisiana enters as one of the two lucky Group of Five teams to receive a bid into the College Football Playoff. As the No. 20 team in the CFP rankings, Tulane did put forth quite the season in the American Athletic Conference. It wasn’t always pretty — as seen in a 48-26 loss at the hands of UTSA as well as a 45-10 drubbing by the Ole Miss group they’ll face on Saturday — but the Green Wave largely performed up to par as a contender at their own level and occasionally above. Wins over Power Four programs Northwestern (23-3) and eventual ACC champ Duke (34-27) obviously stand out, as does a 34-21 victory over North Texas in a conference title game which wasn’t without its fair share of controversy.
The biggest question is whether Tulane can hold its own against an SEC foe that already won the first meeting between these sides in a blowout. Initial reactions say no, but it’s tough to tell. Head coach John Sumrall is on his last run with the team after taking the lead job at Florida, but he’s coached this collection of talent into a quality unit. The Green Wave average 29.1 points, particularly winning the yardage battle with 410.8 per game on the offensive side of things. Those are some very solid numbers, though they don’t truly stand out in national rankings by any means. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff threw for 2,862 yards with 14 touchdowns to six interceptions, taking just eight sacks on the year while completing 62.4% of his passes. His escape ability in the pocket is what makes him such a threat to defenses, rushing for 610 yards and 16 scores as well, both team highs. Halfback Javin Gordon finished second in rushing with 505 yards and five touchdowns, and Retzlaff distributed the ball evenly with no wideout catching more than 38 balls. Of his top guys, Shazz Preston (38-598-4), Anthony Brown-Stephens (35-466-2) and Omari Hayes (35-463-1) lead the way.
Defensively, this team gives give up just 22.6 points per game on the other end, though the 375.5 yards per game allowed aren’t quite as easy on the eyes. One area where the Green Wave are near elite is in the front seven with an average of 120.4 rushing yards allowed and a 7.11% sack rate, good for 29th and 33rd in the country. They also force 1.8 takeaways per game, 15th-best of any team.
Ole Miss Rebels
Let’s look over at Ole Miss now. You’re surely thinking about the drama which unfolded over the last month-ish of the season when now-former head coach Lane Kiffin openly courted LSU before eventually deciding to leave the Rebels and hop on a flight to Baton Rouge. Because of that decision, he’s no longer with Ole Miss as defensive coordinator Pete Golding stepped up in the interim as lead guy. Some may say this program is in disarray, which may not be wrong. However, they’re the No. 6 seed for a reason after blowing out Tulane, beating LSU 24-19, downing fellow CFP competitor Oklahoma 34-26, and defeating Florida 34-24 as well. The one misstep came on the road against Georgia, a clear top-three team that beat the Rebels 43-35 in Athens.
It’s difficult to project what happens without Kiffin, but the numbers are the numbers. The Rebels average 36.2 points, 12th-most, as well as 489.5 yards per game, second-best in the nation. They win games through all phases on offense, posting 192.8 yards per contest on the ground with another 296.6 through the air as well. Those are dominant marks, and the offensive line is quite strong with the 10th-lowest sack percentage allowed of any team. Ole Miss is led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who boasts a 65.5% completion rate with 3,016 yards, 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions on the season while also running for 470 yards and six additional touchdowns. His top target is Harrison Wallace (46-719-3), with three other wideouts catching between 33-38 passes in the range of 533-577 yards. However, the real star of this offense is halfback Kewan Lacy, who ran for 1,279 yards and 20 touchdowns on the campaign as one of the best players at his position in the country. This remains a very formidable unit that can beat teams in a variety of ways, so stopping the Rebels will prove a tall task for Tulane.
While not as elite as the offense, the defense is also quite strong. Ole Miss allows 21.9 points and 354.2 yards per game to opponents, limiting them to 157.1 via the ground and 197.1 through the air. The latter mark comes in at 26th in the sport, but there are a couple of areas in which the Rebels aren’t true standouts. Their 6.28% sack rate sits 52nd and they force only 0.9 takeaways per game, 106th overall. Those splash plays swing games, and they don’t get enough.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Pick
So, what are the odds for this one? If you guessed indications of a blowout, congratulations. Ole Miss is a -17.5 favorite at home on DraftKings Sportsbook with -950 odds to win on the Moneyline. Tulane comes in at +625 on the ML with a game total of 57.5 points.
The betting splits indicate 81% of straight wagers in the Rebels’ favor and 64% predicting they cover the spread. Additionally, 64% of bets are on the over for the game total.
This doesn’t sound like a setting ripe for an upset, does it? Not exactly given the stats and talent disparity between an AAC and SEC program. The entire idea hinges on one thing — the vulnerability of this Ole Miss team without the head coach which led them here and some of the other staff members involved. It’s such a tough situation for them to be in, and while players and coaches can say in interviews all day long that they’re focused on the task ahead rather than what’s in the past, it’s still so difficult to ignore that the program may be in something resembling shambles. We haven’t seen them play since Kiffin’s exit, and while there likely won’t be significant changes to how things are run on game day, we just don’t know how they’ll look come kickoff. That’s the case for a Tulane upset, especially since the Green Wave are likely better now than they were when these teams initially met early in the season.
Will it happen though? Probably not. The size and talent seen on the rosters is like comparing apples to oranges, and while Sumrall’s a good coach, it’s still up to the players to perform and rise to the occasion while outmatched. With Ole Miss boasting an elite passing attack and a ground game that beats opponents up, it’s tough to see Tulane’s secondary holding up given their struggles for much of the season. Factor in the difference in the trenches, and it’s David against Goliath here in Oxford.
Could the Green Wave catch lightning in a bottle? Sure, but it’ll likely take multiple turnovers and an opponent that comes out entirely flat throughout the first half. I may not take them next round, but the smart money is still on the home team here as Ole Miss goes on to cover -17.5.
