This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Chicago White Sox.
Shane Smith is scheduled to pitch for Chicago, while Jack Flaherty is slated to start for Detroit.
White Sox at Tigers prediction, preview
Shane Smith is averaging 95.7 mph on the fastball and is posting a 22% strikeout rate with an 11.8% swinging strike rate. The chase rate is only 26.1%. The barrel rate is 7.1%, but the hard-hit rate is 47.2%. He’s allowed 15 home runs through 120.1 innings. The big bugaboo for Smith is the 9.8% walk rate. He has a 3.81 ERA, but the FIP is higher at 4.42, as the BABIP is only .248.
Eleven of the 15 home runs have come off the bats of lefties. Most of the other numbers are similar against righties and lefties — Smith has essentially been split-neutral, aside from slightly more home runs being served up on the road.
In 24 starts, Smith has allowed more than three earned runs just five times. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of those starts. He faced Detroit four starts ago at home, going five innings, walking three, and striking out five without allowing an earned run on two hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers rank third in strikeout rate and 10th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 17th in MLB.
Jack Flaherty has a 4.74 ERA through 142.1 innings. He’s been unlucky with a 70.4% strand rate, so the FIP sits lower at 3.95. The strikeout rate is strong at 28.1%, but the walk rate has jumped from 5.9% last season to 8.6% this year. The barrel rate is 11.1% — a career high by a wide margin. For reference, Flaherty has only posted a barrel rate above 7% twice in his career. The hard-hit rate is 44.3%. The swinging strike rate is solid at 11.9%, and the chase rate is 30.9%.
Fifteen of the 22 home runs allowed have come at home. Flaherty has been much better against righties, with a K-BB% of 24.7%, compared to just 14.1% against lefties.
Against left-handed pitching, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate, the third-best ISO, and rank 18th in MLB in wOBA. Flaherty’s K-BB% is 4.6% higher at home — but those pesky home runs remain a concern.
In 27 starts, Flaherty has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s allowed eight earned runs twice — the most recent being two starts ago. He’s gone at least six innings 10 times. He has faced Chicago three times this season. In the first meeting (at home in April), he went 5.2 innings, walked two, and struck out seven while allowing one earned run on three hits. In the second meeting on June 2 in Chicago, he went six innings, walked one, and struck out four while allowing one earned run on four hits. In the most recent matchup, four starts ago on the road, Flaherty lasted just 4.1 innings, walked one, and struck out six while allowing five earned runs on eight hits.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Chicago has the 16th-lowest FIP, while Detroit ranks 26th.
White Sox at Tigers pick, best bet
A good ole fashion pitcher’s duel.
