Early-season NBA action can be awfully trying. In a Western Conference packed with playoff hopefuls, these early-season conference matchups carry a lot of weight. The Phoenix Suns have only one win so far in this young season, and it came against the Golden State Warriors. Can they make it two-for-two and start building momentum? Or will the Warriors prevail and continue their winning streak?
The Warriors enter as 2.5-point road favorites, with the game total set at 227.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s my prediction and best bet for this Western Conference matchup.
Suns vs. Warriors Preview
It has been a frustrating start to the season for Phoenix. 1-3 so far, their win over the Warriors wasn’t exactly a feel-good affair for the Suns. In addition to their existing injuries, the Warriors traveled to Phoenix for the second night of a back-to-back and were without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford, and Brandin Podziemski. Their depth was sorely tested; head coach Steve Kerr was forced to start Graham Ike, a rookie undrafted free agent on a two-way deal.
And yet, Phoenix’s lack of defensive cohesion let the Warriors hang around. Six different Warriors scored in double figures, and it took 43 points from Devin Booker to pull out a 131-122 win. In particular, they got cooked by rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who piled up 26 points and five assists while nailing six threes. Granted, Phoenix isn’t the only team to have trouble with the former Wolverine, who is carving up the NBA through his first seven games.
Unlike the Suns, the Warriors come into this one red hot. That loss to Phoenix dropped them to 0-3, but they rebounded with a four-game winning streak. The offense in particular has been excellent, and Lendeborg isn’t the only surprise contributor making a difference. Brandin Podziemski appears to be taking another leap, averaging 16.4 PPG and 5.6 APG. They’re getting a scorching start from De’Anthony Melton, who is scoring 11.9 PPG on 52.8% shooting from three. And of course, there’s the eternal Steph Curry, scoring 29.2 points per game in only 28 minutes per night. If they can cobble together some defense, this team can do more than survive while waiting for Jimmy Butler to return.
This matchup starts with Dillon Brooks’ defense on Steph Curry. He’s no stranger to chasing Curry around the court, which is where most of Golden State’s offense starts. If he can close down a few extra threes and stop them from hurting Phoenix with his drives, the Warriors will have to shift to secondary options, mucking up their game plan. It also wouldn’t hurt for Brooks, shooting 42.9% from three so far, to keep knocking down shots.
The Warriors will focus heavily on Jalen Green. They’ve been burned by Good Jalen Green before—he shot the lights out in last year’s play-in win over Golden State—but know what Bad Jalen Green can do for them. He’s defensively susceptible to off-ball actions, which the Warriors thrive on, and his isolation-focused style offensively makes things easy for their defense. Head coach Steve Kerr has never shied away from letting an inefficient, ball-dominant guard get the shots he wants. If he can make them pay for that, the Suns have to like their chances.
One last interesting battle to monitor is in the frontcourt. With Mark Williams sidelined, the Suns are relying on young Khaman Maluach to start, with a heavy dose of Oso Ighodaro, too. Golden State is even more shorthanded in the paint, losing Al Horford for this matchup in addition to Kristaps Porzingis’ ongoing absence. This places a heavy burden on Draymond Green against the much taller Maluach and gives Charles Bassey another opportunity to contribute off the bench for the Dubs. Phoenix will hope that Maluach and Ighodaro can win the battle on the glass, and Golden State will try to put these young bigs in space and get them mixed up.
Suns vs. Warriors Pick, Best Bet
This will be a very different battle from the first time around. Golden State has started playing a more cohesive brand of basketball, especially on offense. But Phoenix still looks disjointed and ugly, especially on defense, where they rank dead last in defensive rating. I expect the offenses to be flowing tonight, and the Warriors’ resurgent attack will win the day.
