This is the opener of a four-game series in Tampa Bay between the Rays and visiting Cleveland Guardians.
Logan Allen is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland, while Ryan Pepiot is slated to start for Tampa Bay.
Guardians at Rays prediction, preview
Logan Allen is a lefty sporting a 4.42 ERA and 4.7 FIP through 134.1 innings. The fastball only averages 91.2 mph and the strikeout rate is 18%. The walk rate is high at 9.8%. While the barrel rate is 9.6%, Allen has done a good job limiting hard contact with an 88.6 mph average exit velocity and 37.5% hard hit rate. The swinging strike rate is only 7.9% while the chase rate is 22.9%.
14 of the 18 home runs have been served up to righties. The K-BB% is only 6.4% against righties compared to 15.4% against lefties. Allen has been worse on the road with a 5.25 FIP and paltry 4.5% K-BB%.
In 25 starts, Allen has allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He recently got pummeled for nine earned runs in five innings two starts ago. Allen has gone at least six innings nine times. This will be his first time facing Tampa Bay this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Rays have the sixth-highest strikeout rate but only the 19th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 25th in MLB.
Ryan Pepiot averages 95.1 mph on the fastball and is sporting a 24.4% strikeout rate and 11.6% swinging strike rate. He does get hit hard with a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, 9.5% barrel rate and 43.2% hard hit rate. As a result, he’s allowed 26 home runs in 158 innings. The 8.6% walk rate is high as well.
Righties have hit 16 of the 26 home runs. Pepiot has allowed 17 home runs at home. The K-BB% is only 13.6% against righties compared to 18.3% against lefties. The K-BB% is 6.2% higher at home, but the 1.84 HR/9 is the killer.
In 28 starts, Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings 17 times. This will be his first time facing Cleveland this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians strike out at the 14th-highest rate while posting the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 30th in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Cleveland has the second-lowest FIP, while Tampa Bay has the fifth-lowest since August 1.
Guardians at Rays pick, best bet
I do think Allen gets lit up, but the bullpen will likely keep it from going bonkers. On the flip side, I do like Pepiot and the Rays bullpen to shut down the Guardians.
