This is the finale of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Los Angeles Dodgers.
Blake Snell is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles, while Paul Skenes is slated to start for Pittsburgh.
Dodgers at Pirates prediction, preview
Blake Snell has pitched only 37.1 innings this season due to injury. The ERA is 2.41 but the FIP is higher at 3.59. As usual, Snell has done a good job limiting the long ball, serving up only three home runs, but in typical Snell fashion, the control is a major issue with a walk rate of 11.4%. The strikeout rate is down to 24.1% after being over 30% for much of his career. The average exit velocity is only 86.9 mph, barrel rate is 5.9% and the hard hit rate is 32.4%. The swinging strike rate is 14.4% while the chase rate is 31.2%.
All three home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 23.8% against lefties and only 8.6% against righties. The FIPs are close at home and on the road, but the K-BB% is 15.9% higher on the road!
In seven starts, Snell has not allowed more than three earned runs in any contest. He’s gone at least six innings twice. Since August 2, Snell has made five starts. This will be his first time facing Pittsburgh this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates rank second in strikeout rate and 26th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 29th in the MLB.
Paul Skenes has a 2.05 ERA and 2.46 FIP through 167 innings this season. The strikeout rate is 28.6%, which I guess is somewhat of a disappointment… if you’re a hater. Skenes had a 33.1% strikeout rate last season. The walk rate is only 5.8% and he’s allowed only 10 home runs. The average exit velocity is 87.4 mph and barrel rate is 5.2%. The swinging strike rate is 13.7% while the chase rate is 29.9%.
Skenes has largely been split and site neutral.
In 28 starts, Skenes has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings in all but nine starts. He faced the Dodgers in Los Angeles way back in late April, going 6.1 innings with no walks, nine strikeouts and no earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers have the 17th-highest strikeout rate, the fourth-best ISO, and rank third in MLB for wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Los Angeles has the 17th-lowest FIP, while Pittsburgh ranks 13th.
Dodgers at Pirates pick, best bet
The Pirates are going for the sweep! If it was any other pitcher than Skenes, I’d say it’s almost automatic that the Dodgers salvage the win. But it is Skenes and the control issues of Snell scare me.
