As the grind of the MLB regular season continues into September, two postseason hopefuls with World Series aspirations battle down in Daikin Park. On Wednesday night, the Houston Astros (76-63) host the New York Yankees (77-61) for the second outing of a three-game set.
Here’s an Astros vs. Yankees prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.
Astros vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Both of these squads have legitimate hopes of competing deep into the postseason, but each have seen their share of struggles in recent months. On one hand, the Astros battled significant injuries but have struggled to gel at times despite regaining most of their health, sans Isaac Paredes and Josh Hader. After returning Luis Garcia, who hadn’t pitched since 2023, it’s also very encouraging that the rotation will again be whole. On the other hand, the Yankees slumped back in August but seem to have figured out many of their issues with an 8-2 record across their last 10 games, though the an Anthony Volpe-shaped problem at shortstop also doesn’t do them many favors. They are the hotter team, though, and enter this game having won the first leg of the series last night.
In that contest, a 7-1 Yankees win, the final score wasn’t the storyline. Rather, Houston starter Framber Valdez hitting catcher Cesar Salazar with a pitch immediately after giving up a grand slam stole the headlines. While allegedly unintentional and followed by an apology, the vibes in Daikin Park weren’t great for the home team. They’ll have to burn sage or find a similar way to clear the air of that bad juju.
Here’s the interesting part of the matchup. These teams’ offenses rank 20th and 22nd in average over the last two weeks with the Yankees hitting .242 and the Astros batting .240. New York sees a significant advantage thanks to their slugging though with a .832 team OPS compared to just .720 for Houston. Using context clues, you can probably discern that the Bronx Bombers are bashing homers with 32 in that 13-game sample, the most of any team, while the ‘Stros are tied for ninth with just 17. That’s a huge difference, so it’s not shocking to see the visitors ranked fourth in scoring with 77 runs to the home team’s paltry 51 over the same sample.
Astros vs. Yankees pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Yankees as -132 Moneyline favorites on the road while the Astros come in as +108 home underdogs. The run total sits at nine for the matchup.
The matchup on the mound sets up scoring tonight as Jason Alexander (4.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 46 SO) duels Will Warren (4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 149 SO). Houston’s hurler sees a lot of blue on his Baseball Savant profile with only two advanced metrics grading out above the 44th percentile. In August, Alexander logged three outings of three or fewer hits and went scoreless in two of those, but he also allowed seven and eight hits in his last two games, though he only gave up five total runs across those. Warren, meanwhile delivers strong 97th-percentile run value with his fastball despite below-average velocity and boasts a 68th-percentile K%. However, he’s also in the lower half of most metrics.
These pitchers are hittable for the most part, so the scoreboard workers may find themselves busy tonight. With a hot Yankees offense in town against an Astros lineup that needs to get rolling again in a positive matchup, over nine runs feels in play tonight.
Best bet: Over nine runs (-117)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
