With only the teams with the eight best records in the league advancing to the WNBA playoffs, tonight’s clash between the Indiana Fever and Los Angeles Sparks has huge postseason implications. The Fever currently sit sixth, half a game ahead of the eighth-place Golden State Valkyries, and the Sparks are one and a half games behind the Valkyries. Indiana is -1800 to make the playoffs, while Los Angeles is +225.
Tonight’s contest, which tips at 10 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena, is the sixth-to-last game of the season for both teams. The Fever will be without Caitlin Clark for the 17th consecutive game as she continues to make her way back from groin and ankle injuries.
The Sparks are two-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 Moneyline), with the total set at 180 points. Indiana is +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down what is, in essence, a play-in clash and offer a prediction.
Fever at Sparks prediction, pick
It’s not just Clark; in general, Indiana has had miserable injury luck this season. Guards Sydney Colson and Aari McDonald both suffered season-ending injuries on August 7 and Sophie Cunningham went down with a torn MCL on August 19. The Fever have gone 1-2 since Cunningham’s injury, dropping a pair of close decisions to the league-leading Minnesota Lynx and earning a blowout victory over the Seattle Storm. Indiana might still see Clark return before the end of the season, since she recently participated in non-contact drills for the first time, so it might only have to survive in its current iteration for a few more games.
With so many injuries in the back-court, Kelsey Mitchell has assumed a starring role. Since the All-Star break, Mitchell has averaged 23.1 points per game while making 44.4% of her shots from both two- and three-point range, while 2023 first overall pick Aliyah Boston has put up 15.3 points and 9.3 boards per game. The Fever have also gotten a trio of double-digit performances from Odyssey Sims, who they signed to a hardship contract after McDonald’s and Colson’s injuries. Since the injuries, Indiana has had the league’s best offense but has suffered defensively, allowing the second-best percentage from the midrange and the fourth-best from beyond the arc.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, has made quite the charge up the standings after losing 12 of its first 17 games. Since the start of July, the Sparks have gone 12-7 despite a negative net rating thanks to the league’s fourth-best clutch net rating across that span. Los Angeles has been led by Kelsey Plum, who has scored 20 or more points in 11 of her 14 games since the All-Star break, but Dearica Hamby (19.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game on 63.3% shooting) and Rickea Jackson (17.1 points per game on 43.9% accuracy from deep) have been lights-out across the second half as well. The Sparks have still had the second-worst defense throughout the second half, but having the second-best offense helps. They’ve had the third-best performance from deep and the best at the rim.
This game should be close, but it’s a bad matchup for Los Angeles. The Sparks are heavily reliant on their efficiency at the rim, and the Fever have had a dominant interior defense all season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has been vulnerable from pretty much every spot on the floor, and even after all of its injuries, Indiana has been somewhat effective inside and brilliant from deep. The sheer volume with which the Fever attack the paint should overwhelm Los Angeles, which is trying to balance its center rotation between Azura Stevens and last season’s second overall pick, Cameron Brink.
