This is the second game of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Minnesota Twins.
Bailey Ober is scheduled to pitch for Minnesota, while Chris Bassitt is slated to start for Toronto.
Twins at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Bailey Ober is having a nightmare of a season. The strikeout rate is 18.9%, the first time below 20% in his career. The fastball is averaging a career-low 90.6 mph and he’s given up a whopping 25 home runs so far in 114 innings. The HR/9 of 1.97 is a career-worst by a wide margin. The ERA of 5.05 is supported by the 5.1 FIP.
16 of the 25 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 4.8% lower than against righties. He’s been slightly worse on the road, but he’s been bad at home, so….
In 21 starts, Ober has allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He’s gone at least six innings nine times. He faced Toronto back in early June at home, going seven innings, walking one, striking out four and allowing five earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays strike out at the 30th-highest rate while having the 14th-best ISO. Their wOBA is fifth-best in MLB.
Chris Bassitt is the definition of an innings eater. The fastball only averages 91.5 mph but he doesn’t walk many batters and has a respectable strikeout rate of 22.7%. The ERA is 4.18, which is supported by the 4.14 FIP. The average exit velocity is 87.3 mph, barrel rate is 8.6% and the hard hit rate is 35.6%. He doesn’t dominate, but he’s thrown 144.1 innings in 26 starts, giving the Blue Jays a chance in most contests.
13 of the 21 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 12.9%, compared to 20.3% against righties. 12 of the 21 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 6.2% lower on the road.
In 26 starts, Bassitt has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings 12 times. This will be his first time facing Minnesota this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Twins strike out at the 16th-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 21st-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Minnesota has the 13th-lowest FIP, while Toronto has the 18th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Twins at Blue Jays pick, best bet
Mr. Ober, meet Dalton Varsho, who has a .440 ISO against right-handed pitching this season! Fine, it’s only been 134 plate appearances, but still! I like the Blue Jays offense to get busy while the Bassitt hound will give up runs but give Toronto a chance to win.
