This is the opener of a three-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Spencer Strider is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta, while Edward Cabrera is slated to start for Miami.
Braves at Marlins prediction, preview
Spencer Strider has been far from his dominant self, which isn’t surprising since he underwent UCL surgery last year. The fastball velocity is down to 95.5 mph, but he’s still missing bats and striking out batters; just not at the level previously. At his height, Strider boasted a strikeout rate of 38% with a 19% swinging strike rate and 36% chase rate. Those numbers are at 26%, 14.3% and 30.2% respectively this season. The control has been rough with a 3.63 BB/9 and Strider’s been getting hit hard, as the average exit velocity is 91.7 mph, the barrel rate is 10.9% and the hard hit rate is 42.9%. It’s all led to a 5.24 ERA and 4.71 FIP. It’s going to take time to get back to form.
Strider has struggled more with lefties this season, as the K-BB% is only 12.4% while the FIT is 5.25. Most of the numbers have been better at home, but 11 of the 17 home runs allowed have come at home.
In 17 starts, Strider has allowed more than three earned runs five times, with three of those in the most recent outings. He’s gone at least six innings seven times, but not since mid-July, a span of five starts. This will be his first time facing Miami this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins have struck out at the 21st-highest rate while having the 17th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 13th-best in MLB.
Edward Cabrera has been better than solid this season. He’s always been able to miss bats and rack up strikeouts, but his control was the big bugaboo. Through 117.2 innings this season, he’s gotten the BB/9 down to 2.98, the first time below 4 in his career. The fastball is averaging 96.8 mph and the 3.52 ERA is supported by the 3.5 FIP. Cabrera has only allowed 12 home runs.
Cabrera has been more effective against righties, as the K-BB% is 7.4% higher. He’s been site neutral.
Cabrera has allowed more than three earned runs five times, with two of those in his most recent outings. He’s gone at least six innings in six of 22 starts. Cabrera faced the Braves three starts ago in Atlanta, going eight innings, walking one and striking out 11 while allowing only one earned run on two hits.
The Braves have struck out at the 10th-highest rate against right-handed pitching, while ranking 21st in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 17th as well.
As for the bullpens, Atlanta has the 19th-lowest FIP, while Miami has the 17th-lowest.
Braves at Marlins pick, best bet
Give me Cabrera at home against a less-than 100% Strider with plus odds as the home dog.
