It’s been a good couple of months for Atlanta basketball. The Atlanta Hawks made some of the more widely-applauded moves of the offseason, buying low on center Kristaps Porzingis and signing guard Luke Kennard and wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency. Plus, the Atlanta Dream have won eight of their last 10 games to climb to second in the WNBA standings, in excellent position to win their first WNBA title.
The Dream will have a chance to continue their charge up the WNBA standings tonight with a 10 p.m. ET clash against the Las Vegas Aces, the final road game before they begin a four-game homestand.
The Aces are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 Moneyline), with the total set at 166 points, and Atlanta is +120 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated clash and offer a prediction.
Dream at Aces prediction, pick
It has been a down season in general for Las Vegas, but the Aces have been scorching hot since the All-Star break. They’ve won each of their last seven games and 10 of their 13 overall since the intermission, posting the third-best offensive rating and third-best net rating across that span. Unsurprisingly, that charge has been led by three-time MVP A’ja Wilson, who’s averaged an absurd 23.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game across that span on 50-43-89 shooting splits, including a 24-point, 12-board performance against the Dream in the teams’ first matchup after the showcase. This season, Las Vegas is 29.6 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court than off.
Wilson’s teammates have done just enough: over the seven-game winning streak, Chelsea Gray has averaged 11.1 points per game on 45.5% shooting, Jackie Young has a trio of 20-plus-point games, and Jewell Loyd has averaged 15.1 points per game and canned nearly 50% of her triples. The Aces have needed their offense to hum, given a mediocre defense that has still ranked as just the league’s fifth-best unit across the last seven games, nearly 10 points per 100 possessions worse than Atlanta’s league-leading mark. They’ve been particularly exploitable in the paint, as opponents have shot 65.3% within five feet of the basket during the winning streak, the second-best mark in basketball, as well as the third-highest efficiency on shots from five to nine feet away.
Las Vegas’ flawed, Wilson-centric dominance might work against lesser opposition, but the Dream have been equally dominant since the All-Star break, posting a 9-3 record with the league’s second-best net rating across that span. They’ve outscored opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions since the midseason showcase and posted the exact same margin in the four games since All-Star guard Rhyne Howard returned from her knee injury, though they did narrowly drop a game to the Seattle Storm. Since Howard’s return, Atlanta has allowed just a 53.2% mark on shots within five feet, which could pose a problem for the interior-oriented Wilson. The Dream have also limited opponents to the worst percentage from the midrange and the second-worst mark on above-the-break threes, which should help mitigate Loyd’s perimeter-oriented game.
The question is whether Atlanta will be able to do enough offensively to eke out a low-scoring win. In the four games since Howard’s return, results haven’t been great, as the Dream have shot the league’s fifth-lowest percentage in the restricted area and the worst percentage on above-the-break threes, but they’ve made up for it by eschewing the inefficient midrange entirely. Individually, Howard has been brilliant, scoring 20 or more points in two of her last three games, and Allisha Gray has had four 20-point games in August as well. Plus, in her first seven starts, Naz Hillmon has averaged 11.0 points and 9.4 boards per game, helping Atlanta lead the league in rebounding across that span. The Dream should pull off the upset.
