This is the finale of a three-game series in New York between the Mets and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Bryce Elder is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta while Kodai Senga is slated to start for New York.
Braves at Mets prediction, preview
Bryce Elder averages 92.3 mph on the fastball and is sporting a 6.12 ERA. Gross. He’s allowed 18 home runs in 100 innings, a 45.9% hard hit rate and 19.1% HR/FB. Grosser. The FIP is “only” 5.14, though, and the BABIP is an elevated .320, so he’s experienced some bad luck. That said, the strikeout rate is only 17.9%.
11 of the 18 home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties, but the K-BB% is much better against righties than lefties. The FIP is around 5 against both lefties and righties, but the xFIP is 3.81 against righties compared to 4.74 against lefties. Elder has been much better on the road than at home. The K-BB% is a microscopic 1.7%, compared to 17.5% on the road.
Elder has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He has games with eight and nine earned runs allowed. Grossest. This will be his first time facing the Mets this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Mets have struck out at the 20th-highest rate while having the fourth-best ISO. Their wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Kodai Senga has a 2.3 ERA through 94 innings. The FIP is much higher at 4.04, though. The main bugaboo for Senga is the 12% walk rate, which has been negated by the 84.6% strand rate. The average exit velocity is 88.3 mph, the barrel rate is 7.9% and the hard hit rate is 39.8%. The swinging strike rate is a healthy 11.4%.
Senga has been better against righties than lefties. The walk rate to lefties is a robust 14.5% while the FIP is 4.45, compared to 3.62 against righties. Senga has been better at home with a 3.78 FIP and 13.4% K-BB%, compared to 4.28 FIP and 7.8% K-BB%.
Senga has allowed more than three earned runs only twice, but those came in his four most recent starts. Senga has failed to pitch at least six innings in six outings. This will be his first time facing Atlanta this season.
The Braves have struck out at the eighth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 21st in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 17th as well.
As for the bullpens, Atlanta has the 14th-lowest FIP, while New York has the sixth-lowest.
Braves at Mets pick, best bet
I like Senga to slice and dice the Braves’ lineup. He may not go deep into the game, though, but New York has one of the better bullpens in MLB. On the flip side, Elder is prone to the long ball, especially against righties, and Pete Alonso is swinging a hot bat.
