This is the finale of a three-game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Miami Marlins.
Edward Cabrera is scheduled to pitch for Miami while Tanner Bibee is slated to start for Cleveland.
Guardians vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Edward Cabrera used to have a serious Ricky Vaughn problem, posting double-digit walk rates in each of the first four seasons of his MLB career. That number was over 15% twice! This season, it’s way down at 7.9%. What’s even better is that the strikeout rate hasn’t suffered, as it’s still a healthy 25.7%. Predictably, this has been Cabrera’s best season in the MLB with a 3.08 ERA and 3.58 FIP through 108 innings. The fastball is averaging 96.8 mph, the swinging strike rate is 12.4% and the chase rate is 29.5%. The ground ball rate is 47.9% while the barrel rate is 8.3%.
Lefties have given Cabrera slightly more problems, as they have hit two more home runs in three fewer innings while the walk rate is 4.6% higher. Cabrera has been site neutral.
Cabrera has allowed more than three earned runs only twice this season. He’s allowed only one earned run in each of the last four outings. In his most recent start in Atlanta, Cabrera went eight innings, walked one and struck out 11. This will be his first time facing Cleveland this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the 19th-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 26th-best in MLB.
Tanner Bibee has been solid through 131 innings this season, but he’s fallen off from his rookie season. Bibee posted a 2.98 ERA and 3.52 FIP during his rookie campaign. He has a 4.60 ERA and 4.52 FIP this season. While the swinging strike and chase rates have come down slightly, the barrel rate has gone from 6.1% to 8.2% while the HR/9 has ballooned from 0.82 to 1.51. The long ball has been the biggest bugaboo.
Lefties have hit 12 of the 22 home runs allowed while 17 of those 22 have been served up on the road.
Bibee has allowed over three earned runs 10 times. In the three most recent outings, Bibee allowed four earned runs in each. This will be his first time facing Miami this season.
The Marlins have struck out at the 21st-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 19th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 13th as well.
As for the bullpens, Miami has the 17th-lowest FIP, while Cleveland has the third-lowest.
Guardians vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Cabrera has been solid and I like him to continue confounding opposing batters. Bibee, on the other hand, is someone I worry about. He has been better at home, but the last two outings have been at home and he allowed four earned runs to the White Sox and Twins in those. I don’t think the Marlins’ offense explodes, but they likely do just enough to squeak out the win.
