If I told you before the season that only five games separated the defending champion Liberty from the last-place Sparks in mid-August, you’d call me crazy. But here we are.
The Liberty have gone into a rut after their 9-0 start, playing .500 ball since. It’s not entirely their fault; lengthy absences by Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart have left them trying to pick up the pieces. A loss on Tuesday would drop them below the second overall seed for the first time all season long. These games are crucial in setting their WNBA playoff path, where they hope to have a fully healthy squad.
Meanwhile, the Sparks are surging into the playoff picture. A win could put them in a tie for a playoff spot. Fueled by elite offense, their resurgence has been the story of the second half of the season. Tuesday’s game would be another feather in their cap after a thrilling win in their last matchup.
The Liberty are 3.5-point favorites on the road and hold -162 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 178.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this Liberty-Sparks contest.
Liberty vs. Sparks prediction, pick
This one is going to be decided by the offenses. No way around it.
Los Angeles has unlocked something in the past few weeks. Kelsey Plum, one of the best scorers in the league, has stepped up her playmaking. Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson, and Azura Stevens have provided a good scoring punch all season long. Increased playing time for Julie Allemand has worked wonders, and of course, the return of Cameron Brink is paramount. If the scoring stays hot and Brink can shoulder a large defensive load, this team can surprise some people.
The reverse has been true for the Liberty. Without Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu has to shoulder an incredible offensive load. Although the counting stats look pretty, they’re not adding up to results in the win column. Jonquel Jones’ return has solidified the defense, but it’s unclear where the initiation comes from in this starting group outside of Ionescu. Emma Meesseman signing gives them a lot of offensive versatility, but she’s still getting up to speed. In short: without Stewie, they’re stretched too thin, and very vulnerable.
That vulnerability will show itself against the Sparks. Despite LA’s poor home record, they’re playing like the better team. I expect that to win out.
