The red-hot Indiana Fever were unable to stop the Los Angeles Sparks’ rise up the WNBA standings on Tuesday night, as Los Angeles picked up its eighth win in 10 games with a 100-91 decision over Indiana. Next up for the Sparks is a banana-peel game: a home clash against the cellar-dwelling Connecticut Sun that no aspiring playoff team can afford to lose.
Los Angeles is an 11.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-625 Moneyline) for the 10 p.m. ET tipoff, with the total set at 175 points, and Connecticut is +455 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Sun at Sparks prediction, pick
Recently, the Sun were purchased for $325 million by the Boston Celtics’ minority owner, Steve Pagliuca, amid rumors that Pagliuca planned to move the team to Boston. While the team is still expected to play in Uncasville, Conn. at least through next season, it’d be an incredibly poor way to go out if this was the team’s last campaign in the city it has called home since 2002. This season, Connecticut is just 5-23, with the league’s worst offensive rating and defensive rating after losing all five of its starters from 2024. Only Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey have averaged more than 10 points per game this season for the Sun, and among players who have played at least 250 minutes, only Leïla Lacan has a positive on-court net rating.
To be fair, things are looking up for Connecticut; since the All-Star break, the Sun are 2-4 and have had a barely negative net rating, as a result of dominating the Golden State Valkyries and beating a Breanna Stewart-less New York Liberty. After struggling with her native France in EuroBasket, Lacan made her WNBA debut on July 6 and has proven to be a valuable rotation piece since then, averaging 2.3 steals per game, the second-most of any player to appear in 10 or more games this season. Between the 21-year-old Lacan, 22-year-old Aneesah Morrow — who had a stretch of five double-digit outings in six games in late June — and 22-year-old Saniya Rivers, the Sun’s future is bright. The last time the teams played in Los Angeles, the Sparks won by just four, with Bria Hartley leading the team with 25, Rivers contributing 20, and Morrow adding 10.
The difference is that since the All-Star break, Los Angeles has been a top-five team in the league, pulling out several close wins against quality opposition. Kelsey Plum has scored 20 or more points in each of her last five games and trails only three-time MVP A’ja Wilson and current favorite Napheesa Collier in scoring this season. Across that span, the Sparks have had a strong interior defense, holding opponents to the league’s third-lowest field goal percentage between five and nine feet from the basket, and they’ve also defended well from beyond the arc, allowing the second-worst accuracy on above-the-break triples. Last season’s second overall pick, Cameron Brink, has only played 42 total minutes after tearing her ACL last year, but she has a plus-12.2 net rating in those minutes and had five blocks in 16 minutes on Tuesday.
With Brink looking more comfortable defensively every game and Hartley questionable with an illness, Los Angeles should have enough firepower to win the game. Connecticut attempts an above-average number of shots from five to nine feet and has been the league’s fourth-worst team on above-the-break threes, so the Sparks’ strengths correlate strongly with the Sun’s weaknesses. Connecticut has also struggled to defend the floater range, in which Plum, Dearica Hamby, and Rickea Jackson have all attempted at least three shots per game. Give me Los Angeles, plus — just barely — the points.
