With 18 games remaining in their first WNBA season, the Golden State Valkyries are still in position to make the postseason, half a game ahead of the Washington Mystics for the eighth seed at 13-13. They’ve achieved this despite being without All-Star Kayla Thornton since the All-Star break.
After beating the Mystics last night, Golden State will be on the second night of a back-to-back, as they’ll travel to face the Chicago Sky in the fourth of a five-game road trip. The Sky will once again be without Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins, arguably their two best players.
Golden State is a 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-230 Moneyline), with the total set at 153.5 points, and Chicago is +190 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Valkyries at Sky prediction, pick
When the Valkyries announced that Thornton — who averaged 14.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game in 22 games this season — was done for the season, it was widely presumed that Golden State would be toast, especially since it went on a three-game losing streak right before the break. However, the Valkyries have gone 3-1 to start the second half, though they’ve had a negative-5.0 net rating across that span thanks to a 95-64 blowout at the hands of the Connecticut Sun. Four different players have led Golden State in scoring in those four games, exemplifying the team-centric system that Natalie Nakase has instituted all season.
Nakase’s defensive tactics have worked; for the season, the Valkyries have the league’s fourth-best defensive rating despite more roster turnover than any other team in the league thanks to the EuroBasket tournament earlier in the summer. They’ve allowed the third-fewest points, fifth-fewest rebounds, and fifth-fewest assists and held opponents to a league-low 40.5% from the field, in part because they’ve conceded just 12.0 restricted-area tries per game, 3.3 fewer than any other team. That could be a huge problem for the Sky, who have been the league’s second-most layup-reliant team and are currently led by six-foot-seven center Kamilla Cardoso.
Though Reese has her detractors, it’s hard to deny just how much Chicago has missed her as of late. She’s posted 11 straight double-doubles, averaging 17.8 points and 14.4 rebounds across that span while shooting 49.0% from the field, and the Sky have lost the three games she’s missed by a combined 90 points. In the last five games, of which Reese has missed three, Chicago is allowing 66.9% shooting inside the restricted area, the second-highest rate in the league, as well as the sixth-most rebounds per game. Atkins, whose 13.5 points per game trail only Reese, has missed the last six games — all double-digit losses — and the Sky have been 8.0 points per 100 possessions better with her on the floor than off this season.
It’s hard to pin the losses on Cardoso; she’s recorded triple-doubles in each of the team’s four games since the All-Star break, averaging 14.0 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. But she’s yet to establish herself as a good defender despite her size, amassing just 0.1 defensive win shares in 550 minutes this season, and Reese’s rapidly improving interior defense has been missed. Plus, Chicago has had trouble defending opposing shooters all season, and in Iliana Rupert, Cecilia Zandalasini, Kate Martin, Veronica Burton, and even the lightly-used Kaitlyn Chen, Golden State has plenty of those. I like the Valkyries to cruise in this one.
