The New York Liberty narrowly avoided disaster on Saturday when two-time MVP Breanna Stewart left the court hobbling after just three minutes, 27 seconds against the Los Angeles Sparks. Though New York ultimately lost, snapping its win streak at five, avoiding any long-term injury to Stewart was the priority. Stewart won’t play tonight against the Dallas Wings, though that’s mostly a precautionary move.
In Stewart’s stead, the Liberty will be led by Sabrina Ionescu, whose 30-point, eight-rebound, six-assist effort wasn’t quite enough to lead her team to the win, but New York won her 36 minutes by nine points and lost the other four minutes by 10. Despite occasional inefficiency, Ionescu has been solid this season, averaging 19.3 points, 4.6 boards, and 5.8 assists per game.
Even without Stewart, the Liberty are eight-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 173. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Ionescu.
Best Sabrina Ionescu Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Sabrina Ionescu Leading Scorer of the Game (+100)
Stewart has been remarkably healthy in recent years, missing just two total games across her New York stint, plus most of Saturday’s defeat. Thus, Ionescu’s sample size without her co-star is small. But in those games, she has been elite, scoring 30, 28, and 30 points, and on Saturday, she posted a 31.0% usage rate, the second-highest of any player to play at least 30 minutes in their most recent game. During Stewart’s last absence in 2024, Ionescu had a 31.8% usage rate. Especially with Nyara Sabally out as well, Ionescu should continue to be the focal point of the Liberty offense.
She should especially be fine against a Wings defense that, despite some promising talents, has allowed the fourth-most points this season and conceded the second-highest three-point percentage. The latter point is particularly important for Ionescu’s scoring, given that she’s attempted more than half of her shots from beyond the arc in four of her six WNBA seasons. Dallas has also allowed a high percentage from floater range and from the midrange, which also plays into Ionescu’s jumper-oriented game. Paige Bueckers, the soon-to-be Rookie of the Year, will relish the Ionescu matchup, but she’s been merely an average defender this season.
Her primary competition for the scoring lead should come from Bueckers, but she’s scored more than 20 points just twice this month. However, New York isn’t a great matchup for Bueckers, allowing the league’s sixth-lowest percentage from the midrange, where the rookie likes to operate. The Liberty also won’t make it any easier for Bueckers’ teammate Arike Ogunbowale, another midrange ace who’s struggled to finish at the rim this season.
