This is the opener of a four-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Chris Bassitt is scheduled to pitch for Toronto while Zach Eflin is slated to start for Baltimore.
Blue Jays at Orioles prediction, preview
Chris Bassitt is averaging 91.5 mph on the fastball, the slowest in his career. But through 120.2 innings, this season is one of the better ones. The 3.88 ERA is supported by the 3.84 FIP. The strikeout rate is 22.6% while the walk rate is only 5.6%. He’s keeping the ball on the ground with a 46.5% groundball rate, helping to allow only 16 home runs. He’s also been a master at limiting hard contact, as the average exit velocity is only 86.9 mph (third-lowest in MLB), the barrel rate is 7.7% and the hard hit rate is 34.8%.
Lefties have given him problems while Bassitt has been much better at home. 10 of the 16 home runs have come off the bat of lefties while the K-BB% is 9.7% lower on the road and the HR/9 is 0.45 higher.
Bassitt has gone at least six innings 11 times and allowed more than three earned runs six times. He faced Baltimore in his first start of the season, going six innings, striking out seven, walking two and allowing one earned run on eight hits. That game was in Toronto.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the sixth-best ISO. The wOBA is 15th-best in MLB.
Zach Eflin is also averaging the slowest on his fastball in his career at 92 mph. The similarities with Bassitt cease after that. The ERA is 5.78 while the FIP is 5.42. The strikeout rate is a paltry 16.4%. The walk rate, though, is only 4.2%. The long ball has been an issue, as Eflin has served up 16 in 67 innings. The swinging strike rate is decent at 9.4% while the chase rate isn’t bad at 29.9%. That said, that 18.8% HR/FB is no bueno.
Lefties have crushed Eflin this season. They are slashing .323/.347/.659 and have hit 14 of the 16 home runs. Eflin has been bad both at home and on the road.
In 13 starts, Eflin has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He’s gone at least six innings six times, but hasn’t accomplished the feat in each of the last four starts. Eflin faced Toronto in his first start of the season back in April. He went six innings, struck out two, walked one and allowed two earned runs on two hits. That game was in Toronto.
The Blue Jays have struck out at the lowest rate against left-handed pitching while being 19th in ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best.
As for bullpens, Toronto has the 10th-lowest FIP while Baltimore has the 24th-lowest.
Blue Jays at Orioles pick, best bet
I like home dogs, but I will be backing the Bassitt hound on Monday. I also think Eflin and the Orioles pitching staff gets lit up.
