So far, 2025 has been the year of the Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx, who lost last year’s WNBA Finals in overtime to the New York Liberty, have been on a mission to do one better all season, and it’s hard to argue that they shouldn’t be the favorites. They’re blitzing opponents by 13.1 points per 100 possessions and have a 21-4 record.
Next up on Minnesota’s rampage: the Las Vegas Aces, who have been one of the WNBA’s best teams over the last several seasons but are languishing with a 12-12 record and a negative net rating so far in 2025. The game will tip at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Lynx are 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-485 Moneyline), with the total set at 162.5 points, and Las Vegas is +370 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s marquee matchup and offer a prediction.
Aces at Lynx prediction, pick
Tonight’s matchup features last season’s top two finishers in the MVP race, the Aces’ Wilson and Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier. Wilson, a three-time winner, has been undeniably excellent this season, averaging 22.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, though she’s been a non-factor from beyond the arc after developing a somewhat reliable jumper in the last three seasons. With Wilson on the floor, Las Vegas has outscored opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions and been destroyed by 15 points per 100 possessions with her on the bench.
This season, it’s Collier’s award to lose: she’s averaged similar stats (23.0-7.6) on better efficiency (52-34-95) and has had more help, as the Lynx have still won their minutes with her on the bench by 5.8 points per 100 possessions. It helps that Collier basically doesn’t have bad games, but even when she does, Minnesota tends to win. Only twice in her 22 games this season has Collier scored fewer than 20 points and shot less than 40% from the field, and the Lynx won both games. Minnesota had three All-Stars, with Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams joining Collier in Indiana, while only Jackie Young made the team in addition to Wilson. Each Lynx starter has been worth at least one defensive win share this season.
As is always the case, I trust Wilson to get hers, even though Minnesota has allowed the second-lowest field goal percentage in the restricted area and the lowest mark from floater range, Wilson’s preferred domains. But the Aces will need Young to play well too; she hasn’t been very consistent this season, and even her efficient 19 points last night weren’t enough to help her team to victory against an Indiana Fever team missing Caitlin Clark. Since Wilson isn’t much of a shooter, her teammates will need to do better than two-for-15 from deep against a Lynx defense that has allowed a league-low 30.4% mark from that range. Both Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd attempt more than 40% of their shots from deep, and Loyd has been very cold this month, canning just 23.7% of her triples.
There’s only one real place Las Vegas has excelled defensively: forcing opponents into an unhealthy shot diet. The Aces have allowed the second-fewest restricted-area attempts and the fifth-most middies in the league this season, so while they’ve allowed a fairly high percentage of them to go in, they’ve maintained a league-average defense overall because of it. That shouldn’t pose Williams too many problems — she’s the most prolific midrange shooter in the league, and of the nine players who average at least three such tries per game, she has the fourth-highest percentage. Collier, meanwhile, is the third-most efficient high-volume finisher in the league while also finishing at an above-average rate from floater range, and McBride is a knockdown shooter going against a below-average perimeter defense. I like Minnesota to continue its roll.
