As it so often does in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, it all comes down to this. The United States and Mexico. Estados Unidos de América and Estados Unidos Mexicanos. North America’s two great footballing powers have met 78 times on the pitch throughout history, with El Tri claiming a 37-17-24 edge.
At the end of 90 minutes — or perhaps 120 minutes, or perhaps penalties — at NRG Stadium in Houston, a champion of North America will be crowned. Nine times that champion has been Mexico, and seven times it has been the United States.
Despite America playing host and ranking one spot higher in the FIFA World Rankings, El Tri is a slight favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The southerly neighbor is +150 to win in regular time, with the United States at +210 and a draw at +205. Mexico is -135 to lift the cup, with the hosts +105.
Mexico vs. United States prediction, pick
Unlike the Stars and Stripes, El Tri brought its best players to the tournament. Santiago Giménez is Mexico’s most valuable player, with a market value of 30 million Euros, per Transfermarkt, and he’s at the tournament, while the United States’ star, Giménez’s AC Milan teammate Christian Pulisic, controversially opted to sit out the competition. Other American talents, Weston McKennie and Timothy Weah, were on club duty with Juventus at the Club World Cup. While Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson underwent knee surgery, his domestic teammate Raúl Jiménez is with El Tri and punched their ticket to the final with a 50th-minute winner against Honduras.
Although making the Gold Cup final is more or less an expectation for the United States, new manager Mauricio Pochettino has to be fairly impressed with what he’s seen from his young side on its run through the tournament, especially after embarrassingly dropping friendlies to both Switzerland and Türkiye. It won all three of its matches in the group stage, withstood a challenge from a strong Costa Rica side in the quarterfinals thanks to some Matt Freese heroics in the penalty shootout, and held on against an aggressive Guatemala side in the semis. Young players like Freese, Malik Tillman, Diego Luna, and Max Arfsten have made their cases to be included in next summer’s World Cup squad, which the United States will co-host with Mexico and Canada.
El Tri has looked like the best side so far this competition, and it outplayed Honduras more convincingly than the United States ousted Guatemala. In its semifinal, Mexico controlled 56% of the possession and uncorked 10 shots to Los Catrachos’ six, while Los Chapines actually out-possessed and out-shot the Stars and Stripes. It has dominated possession throughout the tournament and allowed easily the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes while nearly matching the United States in attacking categories. El Tri has also recorded the most interceptions and tackles won.
All in all, the hosts have the slightly stronger attack, while Mexico boasts a slightly more solid defense. The crowd in Houston, a plurality-Hispanic city 300 miles from Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, will probably edge in El Tri’s favor.
Ironically enough, I think Mexico’s defensive dominance will prove to be an issue against an attack as talented as the United States’. Because they have allowed so few shots, Luis Ángel Malagón has not been tested much, and his six saves have come from eight shots on target. Freese has allowed two more goals than Malagón, but his save percentage (76.9%) is slightly higher, and he has more penalty shootout experience. If El Tri wants to win the cup, it’ll have to claim it in regular time, because I trust Freese ever-so-slightly more in the clutch.
