So far this season, the three newly-promoted sides (Coventry City, Ipswich Town, and Hull City) have all gotten off to decent starts, with both Ipswich and Hull looking particularly viable in the top flight. If all three end up staying up for just the fifth time in Premier League history, it could drag a few established clubs into the drop zone.
Tottenham Hotspur, who finished 17th in each of the last two seasons, and Crystal Palace (who have finished no worse than 15th but no better than 10th in their current 14-season stint in the Premier League) are two of the teams most at risk of a relegation battle.
It’s far too early in the season to call Saturday’s 1:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. local) matchup between the two at Tottenham’s home ground a relegation six-pointer, but both teams will surely look at it as an opportunity to climb the table.
Spurs are -180 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Eagles +450. A draw is available at +350.
Below, I’ll break down this battle of beleaguered mainstays and provide my favorite bet.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace Best Bet:
- Tottenham to Win in Shutout (+180): As poor as Tottenham’s attack has been at times this season, it has been relatively stable in the defense, and Crystal Palace has squandered many of the limited opportunities it has had in the attack. Spurs should be able to score at least once on the Eagles’ defense, which has been the worst in England by many metrics, and now that James Maddison is back to pair with Sandro Tonali in the midfield, Tottenham should be able to control the pace of the game.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace prediction, pick
To Roberto De Zerbi’s credit, he’s helped turn Tottenham around over the last three weeks. Spurs sat bottom of the table during the first international break, but they’ve picked up seven points in three games since returning, finding a late equalizer to draw against Manchester United, beating the Sky Blues in a must-win game against a relegation rival, and picking up all three points away at Chelsea. Now, Tottenham has climbed to 14th, three points clear of Nottingham Forest in 18th. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, has gone the other way, beating the Foresters but dropping games to both Brighton and Newcastle to tumble from 15th to 17th. The Eagles are still alive in the FA Cup and are among the favorites to win the Europa League, but their Premier League campaign looks bleak.
Spurs have more than enough talent to stay up, especially after their investments in the summer. While no player has yet scored multiple times in the league, Omar Marmoush netted his first goal for the club after his loan from Manchester City, and Sandro Tonali contributed an assist while offering some stability in the midfield. Youngsters Sávio and Mateus Fernandes both look good, even though neither has scored yet and the former will miss this match with injury. Still, Tottenham has produced chances worth the second-fewest expected goals and scored the fourth-fewest, and despite rocketing the ninth-most shots, it’s put the second-fewest on target. Spurs have actually completed passes at the second-highest rate and produced the sixth-most touches in the box, but they haven’t had the quality in the final third. All in all, they’ve been better defensively, conceding the fifth-fewest xG and the ninth-fewest goals from the fifth-fewest shots on target. Tottenham also ranks among the leaders in tackles and recoveries while winning about half of its ground and aerial duels, and it has generated the second-most high turnovers overall. Goalkeeper Antonín Kinsky is a weak link, as he ranks fourth-to-last in goals prevented, but Spurs’ back line (which features World Cup winner Pedro Porro and a pair of young Dutchmen in Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven) should protect him well enough to keep the team in the top flight.
Crystal Palace has had only one player score multiple goals, defensive midfielder Tyrick Mitchell, who did so in a critical win over Fulham in Matchweek 3. Otherwise, Daichi Kamada (one goal and three assists) has been the primary source of offense, and summer signing Anan Khalaili has impressed, netting in a loss to Ipswich Town. The Eagles have produced more xG than Spurs, managing just the ninth-fewest in the top flight, but those have come from the fourth-fewest shots and fifth-fewest on target, and they have not finished very effectively. Crystal Palace has also managed the third-fewest touches in the box, in part because it has been very sloppy with its passes, so it’s not putting itself in good positions consistently. Furthermore, the Eagles’ defense has been extremely problematic; they’ve allowed the second-most xG and the most goals from the second-most shots and the most on target. While they lead the league in tackles, they’ve won aerial duels at the second-lowest rate and have given up the most goals from headers and the most touches in the box. Crystal Palace has done a good job forcing high turnovers despite not pressing much, but like Tottenham, it hasn’t turned many of those looks into shots. Top shot stopper Dean Henderson is back from injury, but he was scarcely better than Kinsky in his three games.
I don’t want to read too much into Spurs’ two-goal wins over both Coventry City and Chelsea, given that the Sky Blues look like the most likely team to suffer the drop and the Blues have been very inconsistent from week to week, but Tottenham has a talented team, and it’s only getting healthier. Neither team has been very good at finishing, but the Eagles have conceded more high-quality looks than Spurs have, and Tottenham’s attackers are good enough to put at least one past Henderson. The season-opening loss to Brentford aside, Spurs have at least been in every game they’ve played; Crystal Palace’s 5-0 result against Brighton was more embarrassing than anything Tottenham has done.
