There are 10 MLB games on the early slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 1:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
SP Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins, $7,400
Pfaadt was decent the first few months of the season, putting up double-digit FPTS in seven-of-eight starts, with three of those over 20 FPTS. In his eight most recent starts, though, he’s gone over 10 FPTS only three times and produced negative FPTS twice.
Six of those starts were on the road while Saturday’s start is at home. That matters because Pfaadt has been bad on the road, especially in the long ball department. Thirteen of the 16 home runs allowed have come on the road. The 6.43 road FIP is almost double the 3.47 home FIP.
The Marlins aren’t the most imposing offense, either. Miami is 15th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching while ranking 23rd in ISO and 16th in wOBA. Miami has hit the fourth-fewest home runs and scored the eighth-fewest runs.
SP Zach Eflin, Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $6,100
Eflin isn’t good. The 5.46 ERA is supported by the 5.53 FIP while the strikeout rate is only 16.1%. He’s also served up 15 home runs in 61 innings. Eflin has gotten lit up for six and seven earned runs in his two most recent starts, one of those against the Tampa Bay Rays.
That said, Eflin put up over 20 FPTS in the three prior starts and has been much better at home than on the road. The home FIP is 4.43 compared to the 6.3 road FIP. The K-BB% is a respectable 18% at home and only 8.1% on the road.
Eflin only lasted three innings in his last start, but he had gone at least five innings in every other outing, with six of those lasting least six innings.
The ownership will likely be very low, so the risk/reward seems favorable.
3B Mark Vientos, New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,700
Vientos just returned to the lineup on Friday after missing time due to a hamstring injury. On the season, Vientos has six home runs while slashing .230/.298/.380 with a .150 ISO. Last season, the ISO was .249, but most of the projection systems have him down for a .190-ish ISO the rest of the way.
Left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter hasn’t been striking out batters at a high clip, but he’s neutralized the long ball and been very good against righties. In his career, though, the HR/9 and numbers against righties have been much higher.
Vientos has a career-.191 ISO against left-handed pitching. It’s very difficult for any batter to hit a home run off any pitcher on any given night, but the depressed price makes it a more palatable adventure.
