I need to clarify something about this article immediately. This is not me endorsing particular players to hit a home run on Tuesday night — that’s this article. Instead, I’ll be taking a look at the home run prop bets that are currently the most popular on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and assessing whether or not the public is correct its adoration.
Make sense? Amazing. Let’s dive into this evening’s packed 15-game slate on the diamond.
Most-Bet Home Run Props on 6/17/25
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+285)
It is rarely a poor idea to back Schwarber to go deep, as the Phillies’ slugger currently owns 98th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.417) and expected slugging rate (.593). However, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Cal Quantrill’s substantial reverse-splits so far in 2025. Six of the eight home runs that Quantrill has surrendered as a member of the Marlins have come off the bat of a right-handed hitter. As such, Quantrill is allowing opposing RHBs to compile a gnarly slash line of .383/.412/.656 with a .456 wOBA. I still don’t hate the idea of betting Schwarber to hit a homer, but maybe I’d put a sprinkle on Trea Turner (+650) or Nick Castellanos (+650), too.
Aaron Judge 1+ Home Run (+190)
Full disclosure: Judge was one of my three home run prop picks for tonight’s slate. So either I’m on board with the public’s line of thinking, or I have waaaaaaay more sway than I assumed. It’s not hard to see why we’re all thinking Judge could go yard this evening. The reigning MVP’s only flaw is his elevated strikeout rate, because when Judge does produce a batted ball event, his .617 expected wOBA is in the 100th percentile of the league. Swinging and missing shouldn’t be an issue on Tuesday night, as the Yankees will face-off with Kyle Hendricks, who happens to possess a first percentile whiff rate (16.4%) in 2025. Hendricks is also allowing 2.25 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs, so it’s a real “unstoppable force meets very moveable object” situation in the Bronx.
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run (+260)
For as much as Raleigh’s popularity is about the fact that he’s tied with the aforementioned Judge for the league-lead in home runs (26), I’d have to assume the presence of Walker Buehler also looms large here. The veteran RHP has been awful in his last four starts, pitching to an 6.86 ERA and a 6.58 FIP. It’s a span of time where opponents of Buehler are slashing .325/.387/.578 and are averaging 2.75 home runs per nine. Raleigh’s hit slightly better as a right-handed batter in 2025 and slightly better away from T-Mobile Park, but there’s no reason to avoid the man they call “Big Dumper” in this plus matchup.
