There’s so much baseball happening tonight. A truly glorious amount of baseball, honestly.
But you’re not here for volume. You’re here you efficiency. Let’s dive into this full Friday MLB slate and find some winners on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my best bets for today’s action on the diamond.
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Under 8.5 (-110)
While it might feel weird to back the under in a game where we don’t actually know both starters yet, I am confident in the things we do know. For instance, Bailey Ober will be taking the mound for the Twins on Friday. Since giving up eight earned runs in 2.2 innings of work in his first outing of the season, Ober has pitched to a 2.43 ERA and 3.25 FIP over his last 11 starts. He hasn’t faced the Blue Jays so far in 2025, but Ober saw a very similar Toronto squad twice in 2024, allowing just one earned run across 12.1 innings with 18 strikeouts. That’s pretty damn good.
On the other side, we also know that Minnesota will be seeing a whole lot of Eric Lauer, even if the veteran lefty is working behind an opener. It’s a small sample size, but Lauer’s looked impressive since returning from the KBO, with a 2.28 ERA and a 3.25 xERA in his 23.2 innings with the Jays. Heck, Lauer hasn’t even allowed an opponent hit in either of his last two appearances, which includes four scoreless innings of work versus the Phillies this past Tuesday. That might be difficult to sustain on Friday, yet the Twins have had their issues with LHPs. Minnesota sports an 87 wRC+ within the split with a 26.8% strikeout rate — the fifth-highest mark in MLB.
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)
I can appreciate why this prop is so low. The Cubs have proven to be one of the hardest teams to strikeout in the league, entering today’s action with a 20.0% strikeout rate that is the fifth-lowest mark in all of baseball. Chicago also ranks in the bottom third of MLB in both chase rate (30.1%) and swinging strike rate (9.8%). In a vacuum, the Cubs are an explosive offensive attack with an above-average contact rate. However, tonight’s game won’t be played in a vacuum.
Tarik Skubal is simply matchup proof at this point. You might be able to hit 99% of pitchers in the league, but he is the 1%. Skubal’s hit the over on this prop in eight of his 12 starts in 2025, specifically accomplishing the feat in six of his last seven outings. In that seven-game span, which dates back to April 27, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has struck out 70 batters in just 47.0 innings of work. That’s translates out to a mind-bending 41.4% strikeout rate. Even more impressive? Skubal’s walked only two opponents in that same stretch, giving him a 35.0 K/BB ratio. That is obscene.
Skubal struck out a mere seven in his last start against the Royals — another opponent that ranks in the bottom five in strikeout rate, just like the Cubs. Maybe a similar fate awaits the left-hander this evening. Still, I’m at the point where I’ll almost blindly back a Skubal strikeout over at plus-money. I’m a simple man.
