31 out of the 32 teams for the expanded FIFA Club World Cup have been confirmed, and tomorrow evening, the final two will play for the right to compete for the biggest prize in club football. After Liga MX side Club León had to vacate their place in the competition because they have the same ownership group as fellow contestants Pachuca, LAFC and Club América were the two teams selected to compete for the final spot.
The MLS side was defeated by Club León, 3-1, on aggregate in the 2023 CONCACAF Champions Cup final, through which the confederation’s representatives were chosen. Meanwhile, Club América was the highest-ranked non-qualified side in CONCACAF’s club rankings after finishing in the top two in the Mexican domestic league in each of the past four seasons. LAFC should have the advantage; because the United States will host the 2025 Club World Cup, the match will be played at the Black and Gold’s home stadium in Los Angeles.
It should be a fairly even matchup; Club América is ranked third by the CONCACAF club rankings and LAFC eighth. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Black and Gold have the narrow edge, with +150 odds to win in regular time and -125 odds to advance to the tournament, while Las Águilas have +160 odds to win and -120 odds to advance.
The winner will automatically make $9.55 million for participating in the Club World Cup and join Group D, which includes English club Chelsea, Brazilian outfit Flamengo, and Tunisian side ES Tunis, a four-time CAF Champions League winner. These four sides will compete for an unprecedented $1 billion prize pool at the tournament, which will take place across 11 US cities between June 14 and July 13. Two MLS clubs — Inter Miami and Seattle Sounders — are currently projected to compete, along with Monterrey and Pachuca from Liga MX.
The DraftKings Network will be closely covering the tournament, so stay tuned for more coverage.
LAFC vs. Club América prediction, pick
LAFC is a young club, having only played its first season in 2018, but it has already played Club América three times, and it has never lost in regular time. The two teams met for the first time in the semifinals of the 2020 CONCACAF Champions League, and the Black and Gold emerged victorious, 3-1. The clubs have also played in two friendlies since then, once in 2022 — when Las Águilas prevailed on penalties after a 2-2 draw — and most recently in a friendly three months ago, then LAFC won 2-1.
The Black and Gold’s leading man, Gabon international Denis Bouanga, used to play for Ligue 1 side Saint-Étienne as well as 44 caps for his country, so he has plenty of high-level football to his name. Bouanga enters tomorrow’s match in extremely hot form, having netted in six of his last eight matches, and his team is undefeated across that span, having picked up three victories and drawn three other times. Through the first 15 games of the regular season, LAFC is fourth in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference, eight points behind the surprising Vancouver Whitecaps.
Bouanga is joint-10th in the division in goals, and Olivier Giroud has notched three goal contributions in his limited playing time, but the team’s defense is a concern, given that it has conceded two or more goals in five of its last seven matches and has allowed the fifth-most goals in the Western Conference. That’s despite center-back Aaron Long leading the MLS in percentage of aerials won; Hugo Lloris has just a 29th percentile save percentage and LAFC has allowed the third-highest shot-on-target to goal conversion rate.
To be fair, though, Club América are coming off of a letdown, losing the Clasura final to Toluca, 2-0, and getting thoroughly outplayed in the process. It’s impressive that Las Águilas won the Apertura in the fall and then made it through the playoffs to come agonizingly close to the spring Clasura, but the fact that they finished just fourth in the season-long Liga MX schedule and only eighth in the spring portion demonstrate that they’re beatable. Over the course of the Clasura season, América allowed 21 goals, merely an average mark. They were also one of just eight Liga MX sides not to have any player reach 10 goals over the course of the 34-match season.
By market value, Club América is the far more talented squad, with a total market value of 89.1 million Euros to LAFC’s 54.2 million. But market value tends to undervalue older talents like Giroud in a single-game context, since he’s 38 years old. In this case, though, I think Transfermarkt is right. LAFC may have the flashy names and home-field advantage, and its defense is leaky. But from top to bottom, América plays in the tougher league, and it is in better form. The Mexican side will produce the shocker to move on.
